WEAI/AERE 2012 - Individual Paper Abstract
Title: Health Effects of Peak Shaving Regulations in New York City: A Natural Experiment
Author(s): J. Scott Holladay, University of Tennessee; Elizabeth PIENAAR,Institute for Policy Integrity, New York University, USA, 212-998-6201, elizabeth.pienaar at nyu dot edu; Kevin Cromar, New York University; Steven Soloway, Hunter College and Institute for Policy Integrity, NYU [Photo credit: based on Wikimedia Commons, New York City Brooklyn power plant.jpg, by Norbert Nagel]
Abstract:
The objective of this research is to study whether laws aimed at reducing emissions from local polluting activities have distinguishable health implications, by taking advantage of the unique features of power plant activity in New York City. New York City's utilities are required to use local power plants for at least 80% of supply, to reduce the dangers of energy grid failure. Two dozen separate power generators are located within New York City limits. Nuclear, coal-fired, and natural gas-burning units generate electricity at relatively low marginal cost, and typically operate around-the-clock to meet the base energy demand. But when demand peaks (for example, with summertime air conditioning use), additional units activate. These "peaking" units meet demand spikes by burning more expensive, dirtier fuels like "residual oil." Emissions from residual oil are especially dirty and produce high levels of PM2.5. Exposure to emissions from these dirty, irregularly operated power plants represents a natural experiment to assess the impacts of activity at these local sources of pollution.
Besides being especially pollution-intensive, local peaking units are also especially sensitive to changes in electricity demand. Laws that reduce and shift demand away from peak hours ("peak- shaving" policies) may be powerful tools for controlling adverse health impacts. While economists have analyzed environmental impacts of electricity generation, few studies link energy efficiency to population health outcomes, and none trace the effects of regulation-driven demand changes back to impacts on the operation of specific plants. We focus on how New York City power plants respond to that changing demand; and whether those plant-specific responses have any significant health impacts for local populations.
Though a few studies have indicated reductions in local polluting activities can produce measurable improvements in community health in excess of estimates based on decreases in mass concentration alone, no previous study has quantitatively calculated the direct public health effects specifically in response to the activity of urban, electrical generating units-a chief source of locally generated air pollution.
We hypothesize that peak shaving policies will have a measurable impact on public health, specifically on cardiovascular disease hospitalization and mortality. In order to test this hypothesis, we:
1. Quantify the relationship between electricity load, market price, power plant operating times, and power plant emissions in New York City; and,
2. Determine the association of daily activity of local, peak-following power generators on cardiovascular hospital admissions and mortality.
This research is being conducted jointly by the Institute for Policy Integrity and the Langone Medical Centre at New York University.