• Biography      
• Curriculum Vitae
• Book: Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics

Lectures and invited talks on expectations, learning and policy

• Workshop on Computational and Experimental Economics, in memory of Jasmina Arifovic, Simon Fraser University, Society for Computational Economics and Bank of Canada (2/2023), "Social Learning and Expectational Stability" (with Bruce McGough)

• The Better Policy Project, Lisbon (12/2022), "Bottlenecks and the Phillips Curve"

• Bank of Canada Annual Economics Conference, Nov. 8 - 10 2021, Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: a Nonlinear Analysis. Published open access International Economic Review, 2022 (with Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra)

• University of Bamberg, Germany, Second Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop, June 2019, Keynote talk, "Adaptive Learning in Macroeconomics".

• UC Riverside Distinguished Speaker Seminar, Nov. 19, 2018, "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy"

• University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain, May 2018, Keynote talk "Learning to Optimize".

• Amsterdam conference on Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models, September 6, 2016, invited talk "Tutorial: Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy"

• Workshop of the Australasian Macroeconomic Society, invited plenary talk, "Learning to Optimize: Theory and Applications," December 12, 2015, University of New South Wales, Sydney.

• Theory and Experimental Macroeconomics, keynote talk, "Learning in Macroeconomics: some recent developments and experimental implications", June 10, 2014, Barcelona, Graduate School of Economics.

• INEXC Paris June 2013 Conference on Expectational Coordination, invited talk on "Learning and the Stock Market: price dynamics and bubbles".

• FRB St. Louis conference on Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models, August 2 - 4, 2012, keynote talk “Adaptive Learning in Macroeconomic Models: some methodological issues”

• Central Bank of Chile Center for Mathematical Modeling, University of Chile, Santiago, workshop on Theoretical questions around the economic crisis, May 2011, invited talk on Adaptive Learning

• University of St. Andrews, School of Economics and Finance, PhD Workshop Series, March 2010 (sponsored by SIRE and GRADskills), Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Policy, Lecture 1, Lecture 2, Lecture 3, Lecture 4

• University Of Paris X - Nanterre, Sept. 2007, Learning and Monetary Policy, Lecture 1, Lecture 2, Lecture 3, Lecture 4.

• IMF Institute, August 2007, talk on Monetary Policy and Adaptive Learning: an overview 

Miscellaneous Commentary on Macroeconomic Policy

• VideoVox interview "Pessimism and the ZLB" in connection with presentation at July 2017 Bank of England conference, Applications of Behavioural Economics and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomic Policy

• Blog post on Economist's View, Dec 30, 2015, 'The Neo-Fisherian View and the Macro Learning Approach' (with Bruce McGough).

• Video & Economist's View link: The Dynamic Properties of New Keynesian Models, Sept. 1, 2010.

• Section 3.3.2 Liquidity Traps and Deflationary Spirals of "Learning and Macroeconomics" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 1, 2009.

• Commentary article in Register Guard, August 2, 2009, on Fiscal policy in deep recessions

• Earlier Register Guard guest column, Dec. 20, 2001, written during the 2001 recession: State badly needs a rainy day fund

Research Working Papers

• Learning to Optimize revised April 18, 2018 (with Bruce McGough and David Evans). Under revision.
• Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots (with Bruce McGough), 2007 (resting paper)

Published Papers -- electronic reprints available on request

• A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast (with Christopher G. Gibbs and Bruce McGough), Extended Appendix, forthcoming American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
• Social Learning and Expectational Stability (with Bruce McGough), forthcoming Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Special Issue in honor of Jasmina Arivovic.
• Are Long-horizon Expectations (De-) stabilizing? Theory and Experiments (with Cars Hommes, Bruce McGough and Isabelle Salle), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 132 (2022). Supplementary Appendix

• The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs (with David Evans and Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 143 (2022), 104492.
• Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: a Nonlinear Analysis (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja), published online open access, 10 April 2022, International Economic Review. Online Appendix. This replaces earlier paper Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy Aug. 1, 2017.
• Bounded Rationality and Unemployment Dynamics (with David Evans and Bruce McGough), Economics Letters, Volume 210, January 2022, 110150.
• Learning When To Say No (with David Evans and Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 194, 2021, 105240.
• Theories of Learning and Economic Policy, Revue d'Economie Politique, Volume 131, 2021, 583-608.
• Agent-level Adaptive Learning (with Bruce McGough), Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, March 2021, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.620. This contribution includes discussion of methodology used in research funded by NSF Grant No. SES-1559209.
• Adaptive Learning in Macroeconomics (with Bruce McGough) Nov. 2020, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.508
• Equilibrium Stability in a Nonlinear Cobweb Model (with Bruce McGough), Economics Letters, Volume 193, August 2020, 109130.
• Stable Near-Rational Sunspot Equilibria (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 186, March 2020, 104987.
• Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple Macroeconomic Model (with Jasmina Arifovic and Olena Kostyshyna), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 110, January 2020, 103775.
• Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models (with Roger Guesnerie and Bruce McGough), Economic Journal, 2019, Vol. 129, 2019, 821 – 852_._
• Fiscal Policy Multipliers in an RBC Model with Learning (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 23, 2019, 240 – 283
• Equilibrium Selection, Observability and Backward-stable Solutions (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, Vol. 98, pp. 1-10.
• Interest Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, Vol. 50, pp. 939 – 965
• Unstable Inflation Targets (with William Branch), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, Vol. 49, pp. 767 - 806.
• Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity? (with Jess Benhabib and Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, Vol. 45, pp. 220-238.
• Policy Change and Learning in the RBC model (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013, Vol. 37, pp. 1947-1971.
• Bubbles, Crashes and Risk (with William Branch), Economics Letters, 2013, Vol. 120, pp. 254-258.
• E-stability in the Stochastic Ramsey Model (with Kaushik Mitra), Economics Letters, 2013, Vol. 188, pp. 407 - 410.
• The Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Recent US Policy, Chapter 3 in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, edited by T.J. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, Oxford University Press, 2013.
• Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection (with Seppo Honkapohja, Thomas J Sargent and Noah Williams), Chapter 6 in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, edited by T.J. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, Oxford University Press, 2013.
• Notes on Agents' Behavioral Rules under Adaptive Learning and Studies of Monetary Policy (with Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra), Chapter 4 in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, edited by T.J. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, Oxford University Press, 2013.
• Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance, (with Seppo Honkapohja), Ch. 2 in Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics, Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps (eds.), Princeton University Press, 2013. [Corrigendum](phelps vol corrigendum.pdf) for Proposition 4.
• Finite Horizon Learning (with William Branch and Bruce McGough), Chapter 8 in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, edited by T.J. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, Oxford University Press, 2013.
• Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold when Agents are not Rational? (with Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,__ Vol. 44, 2012, 1259-1283.
• Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes (with William Branch), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 3, 2011, 159-191.
• Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations (with William Branch), Economic Theory, Vol. 47, 2011, 365-393.
• Representations and Sunspot Stability (with Bruce McGough), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol.15, 2011, 80-92.
• Comments on “Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics and Asset Pricing,” by Andreas Fuster, Benjamin Hebert and David Laibson, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2011
• Asset Return Dynamics and Learning (with William Branch), Review of Financial Studies., Vol. 23, 2010, 1651-1680.
• Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy (with Seppo Honkapohja), in Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects, edited by David Cobham, Øyvind Eitrheim, Stefan Gerlach and Jan F Qvigstad, Cambridge University Press, 2010, chapter 11, 232-260.
• A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance (with James Bullard and Seppo Honkapohja), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 14, 2010, 166-188.
• Generalized Stochatic Gradient Learning (with Seppo Honkapohja and Noah Williams), International Economic Review, Vol. 51, 2010, 237-262.
• Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia (with Bruce McGough), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, Vol. 10: Iss. 1 (Topics), article 5.
• Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning (with Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 56, 2009, 930-953.
• Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research (with Seppo Honkapohja), in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, ed. by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Carl Walsh, 2009, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, 27-76,
• Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules (with Seppo Honkapohja), in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, ed. by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Carl Walsh, 2009, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, 145-170.
• Learning and Macroeconomics (with Seppo Honkapohja), Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 1, 2009, 421-449.
• Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention and the Volatility Trade-off (with William Branch, John Carlson and Bruce McGough, Economic Journal, Vol. 119, 2009, 123-157.

Published papers continued: electronic reprints available on request

• Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation (with Eran Guse and Seppo Honkapohja), European Economic Review, Vol. 52, 2008, 1438 – 1463. Typo in equation (23)
• Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap, Monetary and Economic Studies, December 2008, 59 – 86.
• Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-Rational Exuberance (with James Bullard and Seppo Honkapohja),  American Economic Review. Vol. 98, 2008, 1163 – 1177.
• Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle? (with Avik Chakraborty), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 55, 2008, 477 – 490.
• Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices (with Seppo Honkapohja), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 11, 2007, 665 – 690.
• Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 39, 2007, 1335-1356.
• Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility (with William Branch), Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 19, 2007, 207-237.
• Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Model (with Seppo Honkapohja and Ramon Marimon)  The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Advances), Article 3.
• The E-Correspondence Principle (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economica, 2007, Vol, 74, 33-50.
• Are Hyperinflation Paths Learnable? (with Klaus Adam and Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 30, 2006, 2725-2748.
• Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique (with Garey Ramey), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006, Vol. 53, 249-264.
• A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model (with William Branch), Economics Letters, 2006, Vol. 91, 158-166.
• Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation (with William Branch), Journal of Economic Theory, 2006, Vol. 127, 264-295.
• Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment (with Seppo Honkapohja), Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2006, Vol. 108, 15-38.  Corrigendum, Scand. J. E. 2010, Vol. 112, 640-641.
• Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint -- Linear Multivariate Models (with Roger Guesnerie), Journal of Economic Theory, 2005, Vol. 124, 202-229.
• Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, Vol. 29, 1809-1840.
• An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent (with Seppo Honkapohja), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2005, Vol. 9, 561-583.
• Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, Vol. 8, 2005, 303-323.
• Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies (with Bruce McGough), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Contributions), 2005, Vol. 5: Issue 1, Article 8.
• Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, Vol. 29, 601-625.
• Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia (with Bruce McGough), Economics Letters , 2005, Vol. 87, 1-7.
• Comment on Orphanides-Williams in Inflation Targeting, ed. Ben Bernanke and Michael Woodford, 2005, NBER and University of Chicago Press.
• Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2003, Vol. 35, 1045-1072.
• Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policy (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Studies, 2003, Vol. 70, 807-824.
• Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy (with Seppo Honkapohja), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2003, Vol. 50, 550-566.
• Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Model (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2003, Vo. 28, 171-181.
• Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Theory, 2003, Vol. 111, 125-134.
• Coordination on Saddle Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint -- Linear Univariate Models (with Roger Guesnerie), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2003, Vol. 7, 42-62.
• Expectations in Macroeconomics: Adaptive vs. Eductive Learning Revue Economique, 2001, Vol. 52, No. 3, 573-582.

Abstracts of selected earlier publications:

• Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules (with Seppo Honkapohja and Ramon Marimon), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2001
• Convergence for Difference Equations with Vanishing Time Dependence (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economic Theory, 2000
• Learning Dynamics (with Seppo Honkapohja), Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999
• Growth Cycles (with Seppo Honkapohja and Paul Romer), American Economic Review, 1998
• Calculation, Adaptation and Rational Expectations (with Garey Ramey), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1998
• Economic Dynamics With Learning: New Stability Results (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Studies, 1998
• Convergence of Learning Algorithms Without a Prjection Facility (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Mathematical Economics, 1998. Corrigendum and extension.
• Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady states and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models (with Seppo Honkapohja), Econometrica, 1995
• On the Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Theory, 1994
• Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle (with Lucrezia Reichlin), Journal of Monetary Economics, 1994
• Rationalizability, Strong Rationality and Expectational Stability (with Roger Guesnerie), Games and Economic Behavior, 1993
• On the Preservation of Deterministic Cycles when some Agents Perceive Them to be Random Fluctuations (with Seppo Honkapohja and Thomas J. Sargent), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1993
• Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics (with Garey Ramey), American Economic Review, 1992
• On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models (with Seppo Honkapohja), International Economic Review, 1992
• Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices, American Economic Review, 1991
• Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1989
• The Fragility of Sunspots and Bubbles, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989
• A Complete Characterization of ARMA solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Studies, 1986
• A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84, American Economic Review, 1986
• Selection Criteria for Models with Non-Uniqueness, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1986
• Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1985
• Bottlenecks and the Phillips Curve: a Disaggregated Keynesian Model of Inflation, Output and Unemployment, Economic Journal, 1985
• Review of "Commercial Society" by C. Johnson, R. Lusch and D. Schmidtz. This book is a revised version of their 2016 book, which I previously reviewed in Review of "Ethics, Economy and Entrepreneurship" 

Encyclopedia Entries

• Economics of Expectations (with Seppo Honkapohja), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2001. Revised for second edition, 2015, Elsevier.

• Learning in Macroeconomics (with Seppo Honkapohja), New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition.

• PDF reprints of published papers available via email or ResearchGate request in most cases.

Contact

• Office mailing address

  Department of Economics
  1285 University of Oregon        
  Eugene, OR 97403-1285, USA

• E-mail: gevans "at" uoregon "dot" edu

• Office phone: (541)-346-4662