UO E-Clips is a daily report prepared by the Office of Communications (http://comm.uoregon.edu) summarizing current news coverage of the University of Oregon.

Media mentions for March 7

Oregon economic activity improves

Register-Guard: Economic activity continued to improve in Oregon in January, according to a University of Oregon index. Manufacturing and service industries continued to help the economy, according to the UO Index of Economic Indicators, while construction remained a drag. Consumer confidence continued to rebound from the lows of last summer and fall, said UO economist Tim Duy, the author of the index. But he warned that this confidence may weaken in the months ahead because of higher gasoline prices. The index rose to 89.6 in January, up from 89.5 in December -- the second monthly gain in a row. The index projects economic conditions for the next three to six months, using 1997 as the base year of 100. The higher the number, the better the outlook. Overall, the data in January show continued growth for the Oregon economy in 2012, Duy said, although the recent increases in oil prices will sap some of that growth. Not all regions of the state enjoy the same growth rate, however, according to another economic index that Duy produces, which looks at separate regions.

Kitzhaber gets his way on legislative priorities

Register-Guard: Although rebalancing the budget was the main focus of the just-ended legislative session, lawmakers also passed a host of policy bills in their 34 days in Salem. The big winner of the session was Gov. John Kitzhaber. The governor saw all four of his top health care and education reform priorities pass without having to cede much to Republicans, who share control of the Oregon House. Kitzhaber did publicly throw his support late in the session behind a bill to increase the number of enterprise zones in Oregon, a bill championed by House Co-Speaker Bruce Hanna, a Roseburg Republican. Certain businesses that expand in enterprise zones get property tax waivers. The zones' goal is to spur job growth in low-income areas. The measure passed easily. ... Other session winners: ... Backers of a University of Oregon governing board: Legislation will be presented in 2013 to create independent governing boards at Oregon's public universities. A special committee formed this session will draft it. Whether lawmakers look favorably on the proposal next year is another question.)

Health system framework, patterns make change from within unlikely

News-Medical.net: The New York Times talks to Victor Fuchs, emeritus professor of economics and health research and policy at Stanford University, about the cost control challenges presented by the health system. Meanwhile, the National Journal reports on how individual health care choices also help drive costs. ... National Journal: People Like Expensive Health Care, Study Finds – Here's an unusual factor that could be helping to drive up U.S. health care costs: If people get a choice, they'll often go for the priciest option, researchers reported on Monday. Patients tend to equate cost with quality, Judith Hibbard of the University of Oregon and colleagues report in the journal Health Affairs -- something that retailers know all too well but that may not have been taken into account in health care reform efforts (Fox, 3/6).)

Peyton Manning To Remain Endorsement Star

KMBC reprinted from CNNMoney: Peyton Manning's career with the Indianapolis Colts has come to an end, but his career as one of the nation's leading product endorsers should continue undisturbed. Manning and the Colts announced Wednesday they were going their separate ways. The National Football League team couldn't afford the $28 million bonus he would have been due, especially since he'll be attempting to come back from a neck injury that kept him off the field all of last season. But sports marketing experts say Manning's appeal has transcended his career as the Colts' quarterback. And they say that whether his next stop is a big- market team, a small-market team or retirement won't have much effect on his marketability. "He's an established national brand," said Paul Swangard, managing director of the Warsaw Sports Marketing Center at the University of Oregon. "I don't think location, wherever it is, will be a step backwards for him."

Soil in Central Mexico Supports Theory of Meteorite Impact

Latin American Herald Tribune: An international scientific team has identified in Lake Cuitzeo, in central Mexico, unusual materials in the sediment that support the theory of a meteorite impact some 12,900 years ago, according to an article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. ... The theory of an extraterrestrial impact leading to global cooling 13,000 years ago was first posed in 2007 and holds that something hit the Earth and set a large swath of North America on fire. The theory was proposed after a study of ancient sediments at multiple sites, where geologists noticed a carbon-rich layer of sediment. Later, researchers led by University of Oregon archaeologist Douglas Kennett found high concentrations of nanodiamonds – which are associated with high-temperature collisions of material – in that sediment layer.

Pay workers more, feel economic pain

 New York Daily News: Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has introduced a bill that would add New York to the list of states whose minimum wage rises with inflation each year. His proposal follows last year's New York City-specific plan to create a "living wage" of $10 an hour with benefits. Advocates for wage increases like these have historically focused on their potential to fight poverty and reduce income inequality. Perhaps because minimum wages have been ineffective in achieving these ends, proponents have moved on to a new pledge: Higher minimum wages will provide a macroeconomic stimulus. But evidence suggests steadily increasing the minimum wage does more harm than good to the broader economy. ... Sometimes, the impact is larger: Research forthcoming in Industrial and Labor Relations Review, which I co-authored with Cornell University's Richard Burkhauser and the University of Oregon's Benjamin Hansen, found a 20% drop in employment for 16-to-29-year-olds without a high school diploma following New York's last legislated increase.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Late mentions for March 6

Oregon economy holds steady in January

Portland Business Journal, similar story on KBND: Gains in manufacturing and the services sectors helped the Oregon economy hold steady in January. The University of Oregon's Index of Economic Indicators in January was 89.5, matching December's number, which was the highest level recorded since July. The report, a measure of economic activity, is indexed to 100 based on economic conditions in 1997. ... While the January data suggests continued growth in 2012, rising oil prices may cause consumers to cutback on spending.

Mayor: Sacramento 'on the verge of doing something very special' with arena vote

Sacramento Bee: The council is expected to approve a "term sheet" for a $391 million arena. The city has proposed contributing 65 percent of the project cost, mostly through either leasing or borrowing against downtown parking. The Kings and arena operator AEG have agreed to chip in $132 million to the project. Johnson said he was comfortable with the public contribution, saying "we knew we would have to be partners" and that the private contribution "rivals any other commitment made in recent years" to arenas in other cities. The city's contribution is in line with what other cities have put into arenas in recent years. Several arenas have been built with smaller contributions from sports teams than what the Kings have agreed to pay. Dennis Howard, a University of Oregon sports business professor, told The Bee's Dale Kasler that arenas built since 2005 have averaged a 65 percent funding contribution from the public. A decade ago, cities were putting up between 75 to 100 percent of arena costs. That's shrunk somewhat, as cities' budgets were hammered by the recession and taxpayers became less sympathetic to sports teams' demands, said Michael Mondello, a sports management professor at Florida State University.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Media mentions for March 7

Oregon economic activity improves

An economist warns that gas prices could sap consumer confidence in coming months

Economic activity continued to improve in Oregon in January, according to a University of Oregon index.

Manufacturing and service industries continued to help the economy, according to the UO Index of Economic Indicators, while construction remained a drag.

Consumer confidence continued to rebound from the lows of last summer and fall, said UO economist Tim Duy, the author of the index. But he warned that this confidence may weaken in the months ahead because of higher gasoline prices.

The index rose to 89.6 in January, up from 89.5 in December -- the second monthly gain in a row. The index projects economic conditions for the next three to six months, using 1997 as the base year of 100. The higher the number, the better the outlook.

Overall, the data in January show continued growth for the Oregon economy in 2012, Duy said, although the recent increases in oil prices will sap some of that growth.

Not all regions of the state enjoy the same growth rate, however, according to another economic index that Duy produces, which looks at separate regions.

Portland has been the standout in terms of economic growth, according to Duy's figures, although Salem and Eugene-Springfield also have seen improvement. Portland has seen gains in employment, particularly in the financial industry, according to Duy's figures, and housing permits have not mirrored the continued decrease seen in other parts of the state.

Central Oregon and the Rogue Valley have lagged behind the rest of the state, he said. The Rogue Valley, in particular, has seen a weakening in the labor market.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kitzhaber gets his way on legislative priorities

His health care and education reform measures pass, though Republicans put their stamp on some issues

Although rebalancing the budget was the main focus of the just-ended legislative session, lawmakers also passed a host of policy bills in their 34 days in Salem.

The big winner of the session was Gov. John Kitzhaber. The governor saw all four of his top health care and education reform priorities pass without having to cede much to Republicans, who share control of the Oregon House.

Kitzhaber did publicly throw his support late in the session behind a bill to increase the number of enterprise zones in Oregon, a bill championed by House Co-Speaker Bruce Hanna, a Roseburg Republican. Certain businesses that expand in enterprise zones get property tax waivers. The zones' goal is to spur job growth in low-income areas.

The measure passed easily.

But, for the most part, House Republicans' job creation agenda -- a mix of new tax incentives, increases in river water use for agriculture and logging on state lands -- didn't get off the ground.

On the other hand, Republicans did manage to put their imprint on some of Kitzhaber's priority bills. For example, the bill to set up an online health insurance exchange for individuals and small businesses was amended to allow school districts to use it. The move could allow individual districts to purchase private sector health insurance on their own rather than going through the Oregon Educators' Benefit Board. Republicans believe that option could help districts keep employee health insurance costs down.

While Kitzhaber has been successful so far at getting legislators to go along with his reform efforts in his third term as governor, his concepts' true tests lie ahead. The state budget is built around the assumption that one health reform will generate huge savings for the state: $239 million in the second year of the 2011-13 biennium alone. If those savings don't materialize, a wave of problems could ensue.

Similarly, Kitzhaber's bill requiring schools to set specific achievement goals or "compacts" for their students doesn't spell out consequences if districts fail to meet those goals. The assumption is that, down the road, schools' funding will somehow be tied to meeting the goals. Oregonians can expect a heated legislative battle over adding teeth to the concept.

Other session winners:

Distressed Oregon homeowners: Lawmakers came to a late deal on a bill that guarantees financially struggling homeowners a preforeclosure, face-to-face meeting with their bank or other large lender, provided that they meet with a housing counselor first. The bill prevents lenders from starting the foreclosure process while they are still negotiating a loan modification. Similar measures have been implemented in other states since the start of the housing crisis, with varying success. Legislators were careful to point out that mediation isn't a cure-all: Homeowners are often too far behind to successfully secure a loan modification.

Backers of a University of Oregon governing board: Legislation will be presented in 2013 to create independent governing boards at Oregon's public universities. A special committee formed this session will draft it. Whether lawmakers look favorably on the proposal next year is another question.

Offshore marine life: Lawmakers voted to create three no-fishing reserves in the state's territorial sea with a total size of about 40 square miles. The new protections don't kick in for two years, while scientists gather data. That data will be used to track how marine life changes once the reserves are in place.

Facebook: The company got legislators to sign off on the 15-year property tax exemption the company was promised when it built a data center in Prineville last year. The bill arose after a taxation dispute between Facebook and the state Department of Revenue. Lawmakers hope passing the measure will induce more Internet giants to set up data centers in the state.

Concealed handgun license holders: Their names will be kept private in most instances, barring a "compelling public interest." Before the bill, many counties already allowed license holders to stay private if they claimed that they needed the concealed handgun for "personal safety reasons." For example, in 2011, only 200 of Lane County's 14,000 concealed handgun permit holders were subject to public name disclosure.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Health system framework, patterns make change from within unlikely

The New York Times talks to Victor Fuchs, emeritus professor of economics and health research and policy at Stanford University, about the cost control challenges presented by the health system. Meanwhile, the National Journal reports on how individual health care choices also help drive costs.

The New York Times: Knotty Challenges In Health Care Costs

Dr. Fuchs, who has been called the dean of American health care economists, has spent five decades studying the health care problem. In his view, what is needed is the sort of major change that comes once in a decade, perhaps, or even just once in a generation. But change, he believes, will not bubble up from within the health care system itself (Kolata, 3/5).

National Journal: People Like Expensive Health Care, Study Finds

Here's an unusual factor that could be helping to drive up U.S. health care costs: If people get a choice, they'll often go for the priciest option, researchers reported on Monday. Patients tend to equate cost with quality, Judith Hibbard of the University of Oregon and colleagues report in the journal Health Affairs -- something that retailers know all too well but that may not have been taken into account in health care reform efforts (Fox, 3/6).

In other news, a political analyist predicts "extreme uncertainty" for the health care industry.

Modern Healthcare: 'Extreme Uncertainty' Ahead: Analyst

The healthcare industry is facing a period of "extreme uncertainty and volatility," said CNN senior political analyst David Gergen, who offered some predictions to healthcare executives closely watching the political landscape. Gergen headlined day two of the Federation of American Hospitals' annual public policy conference in Washington, noting that the industry is facing a growing demand for accountability and "relentless" cost pressure (Kutscher, 3/5).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Peyton Manning To Remain Endorsement Star

Manning Already Rakes In $15M In Annual Endorsements

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Peyton Manning's career with the Indianapolis Colts has come to an end, but his career as one of the nation's leading product endorsers should continue undisturbed.

Manning and the Colts announced Wednesday they were going their separate ways. The National Football League team couldn't afford the $28 million bonus he would have been due, especially since he'll be attempting to come back from a neck injury that kept him off the field all of last season.

But sports marketing experts say Manning's appeal has transcended his career as the Colts' quarterback. And they say that whether his next stop is a big- market team, a small-market team or retirement won't have much effect on his marketability.

"He's an established national brand," said Paul Swangard, managing director of the Warsaw Sports Marketing Center at the University of Oregon. "I don't think location, wherever it is, will be a step backwards for him."

Among the products he has pitched in the past are MasterCard, Papa John's Pizza, DirecTV, as well as Kraft's Oreo cookies and PepsiCo's Gatorade.

According to athletes earnings rankings by SI.com, Manning has by far the most endorsements of any football player, and is among the leaders among all athletes. Only golf's Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, basketball's LeBron James and NASCAR's Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon topped Manning's annual $15 million in endorsements.

And Manning tops all those active athletes in a combination of familiarity and positive appeal, according to a survey of consumers conducted by The Marketing Arm, a firm that arranges celebrity endorsement contracts.

Experts say Manning is well positioned to continue to rake in the endorsement dollars even after he retires, much like Michael Jordan, who remains a top pitchman years after he stopped playing basketball. And that should be the case even if Manning's remaining playing days prove to be a disappointment.

"His story is already written. What he does in his last year or years will have little impact on what he does endorsement-wise, post retirement," said Bill Glenn, senior vice president of The Marketing Arm.

Glenn said Manning will be able to extend his endorsement career further if he stays visible, such as with a career in broadcasting or coaching. His endorsement potential is now being driven almost as much by his public image as by any on-field accomplishments.

He's helped by the fact that he's remained completely scandal free, unlike some other top athlete pitchmen such as Woods.

"He's likable, personable. He's got every attribute you look for in celebrity endorsement," said Glenn.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Soil in Central Mexico Supports Theory of Meteorite Impact

WASHINGTON -- An international scientific team has identified in Lake Cuitzeo, in central Mexico, unusual materials in the sediment that support the theory of a meteorite impact some 12,900 years ago, according to an article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The team, headed by Isabel Israde Alcantara, of Mexico's Universidad Michoacana, said in the article that the layer of black lake sediment is rich in carbon and contains nanodiamonds and micro-spherules dating from the beginning of the so-called Younger Dryas period, an abrupt and very short cold interval that started about 12,900 years ago.

This period was a brief phase lasting about 1,300 years when the climate cooled at the end of the Pleistocene period and the presence of these materials in a core sample 27 meters (88 feet) long "is interpreted as the result of an extraterrestrial impact."

Besides Israde, other members of the team include her faculty colleague Gabriela Dominguez Vazquez, as well as scientists from Taiwan's National University, the University of California, the University of Oregon and Harvard, and the Institute for Materials Science in Tsukuba, Japan.

Lake Cuitzeo covers 300 to 400 square kilometers (115 to 154 square miles) and is 27 meters deep, on average.

The scientists removed the core sample from beneath the lakebed with the aim of obtaining a record of the climate from the period before the interglacial period, the article explains.

"Our attention focused very quickly on an anomalous layer, about 10 centimeters (4 inches) thick and at a depth of 2.8 meters (9 feet) deep, which dates from some 12,900 years ago and coincides with several anomalous environmental and biotic changes, recognized independently in other ... regional lake samples," the article continues.

Taken together, these changes produced the most noteworthy layer of sediments at the end of the Quaternary Period.

The layer, the scientists explained, contains a diverse and abundant accumulation of materials linked to an impact, and in addition to the nanodiamonds and spherules of carbon there are also magnetic spherules.

The researchers, in their article, are pondering multiple hypotheses to explain their observations but have come to the conclusion that the presence of such materials "cannot be explained by any terrestrial mechanism."

They rule out a rain shower of cosmic particles; wildfires; volcanism; human-related activities; and even particle misidentification (like finding false positives for nanodiamonds), saying that a cosmic impact is the only viable hypothesis to account for the materials.

Essentially, the scenario painted by the scientists is this: About 13,000 years ago, a piece of a comet or asteroid hurtled into the atmosphere at a shallow angle, superheating the atmosphere around it as it plunged toward the surface. The air grew hot enough to ignite plant material and melt the rock below the object's flight path. Within a few microseconds, atmospheric oxygen was consumed and the freed carbon atoms condensed into nanodiamond crystals.

The shock wave from the meteorite blew these nanodiamonds and other carbon particles high into the atmosphere and spread them widely. Larger mammals in North America not killed by the blast starved, unable to forage on the scorched earth, and human populations there also dwindled. The shock to the atmosphere was enough to lower global temperatures for more than 1,000 years.

The research study bolsters the controversial argument that an asteroid impact might have chilled the planet during the Younger Dryas.

The theory of an extraterrestrial impact leading to global cooling 13,000 years ago was first posed in 2007 and holds that something hit the Earth and set a large swath of North America on fire. The theory was proposed after a study of ancient sediments at multiple sites, where geologists noticed a carbon-rich layer of sediment. Later, researchers led by University of Oregon archaeologist Douglas Kennett found high concentrations of nanodiamonds – which are associated with high-temperature collisions of material – in that sediment layer.

The theory drew a firestorm of criticism and the nanodiamond theory was largely discounted by 2011 after many groups of scientists could neither corroborate nor replicate the results. Now, however, the research team led by Israde has come up with results that appear to corroborate the 2007 hypothesis. EFE

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pay workers more, feel economic pain

Minimum wage lies

Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has introduced a bill that would add New York to the list of states whose minimum wage rises with inflation each year. His proposal follows last year's New York City-specific plan to create a "living wage" of $10 an hour with benefits.

Advocates for wage increases like these have historically focused on their potential to fight poverty and reduce income inequality. Perhaps because minimum wages have been ineffective in achieving these ends, proponents have moved on to a new pledge: Higher minimum wages will provide a macroeconomic stimulus.

But evidence suggests steadily increasing the minimum wage does more harm than good to the broader economy.

The "economic stimulus" rationale for minimum-wage hikes goes like this: Minimum-wage increases will improve incomes among low-skilled workers, leading to more consumer spending and job creation.

Like many misleading arguments, this one begins with a grain of truth. A team of economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago found that minimum-wage increases were associated with a temporary spending boost in households with an adult earning the minimum wage. This boost was primarily the result of debt-financed purchases of cars and trucks.

This interesting but quite modest finding has been co-opted by advocates to support their stimulus argument.

But there are a number of other important reasons to expect that minimum-wage hikes will negatively affect the health of the economy.

In a recent study published by the Employment Policies Institute, I examined the relationship between minimum-wage increases between 1997 and 2007 and state Gross Domestic Product. I find that increases in state and federal minimum wages have little effect on overall or private-sector state GDP. Furthermore, in industries that employ larger shares of low-skilled workers, minimum-wage increases are associated with a decline in employment and output.

If raising the minimum wage is an effective way to stimulate employment and economic growth, why not just raise the current state minimum wage to $20 or even $200 an hour? The reason, of course, is that the cost of the raise has to be paid by someone.

Mayor Bloomberg understood this economic principle last year during the city's living wage debate. He famously stated that the "last time people tried to set rates basically was in the Soviet Union, and that didn't work out very well."

Setting ever-rising minimum wage rates doesn't work out well, either. So it was curious to see the mayor sign an Op-Ed this year endorsing higher rates for the entire state.

The labor costs imposed by rising minimum wages will lead employers to reduce employment and hours of many vulnerable low-skilled workers, often those who are less educated and less experienced. A recent comprehensive review of two decades of economic literature by David Neumark (University of California, Irvine) and William Wascher (Federal Reserve Board) suggests that a 10% increase in the minimum wage reduces employment among the least skilled by 1% to 2%.

Sometimes, the impact is larger: Research forthcoming in Industrial and Labor Relations Review, which I co-authored with Cornell University's Richard Burkhauser and the University of Oregon's Benjamin Hansen, found a 20% drop in employment for 16-to-29-year-olds without a high school diploma following New York's last legislated increase.

If individuals are not employed, they can't earn higher incomes to spend and stimulate the economy. The best way to generate macroeconomic growth is to promote job creation, and the evidence is clear that minimum-wage increases fail at that task.

Sabia is an assistant professor in the department of economics at San Diego State University.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Late mentions for March 6

Oregon economy holds steady in January

Gains in manufacturing and the services sectors helped the Oregon economy hold steady in January.

The University of Oregon's Index of Economic Indicators in January was 89.5, matching December's number, which was the highest level recorded since July. The report, a measure of economic activity, is indexed to 100 based on economic conditions in 1997.

Among the data included in the January report:

• Initial unemployment claims rose to 8,805 from 7,748 in December.
• Employment services payrolls declined to 30,936 from 31,201.
• Residential permits increased to 766 from 720.
• U.S. consumer confidence increased to 65.9 from 62.
• New manufacturing orders for non-defense, non-aircraft capital goods declined to 40,782 from 42,855.
• The interest rate spread for 10-year treasury bonds and the federal funds rate declined to 1.89 from 1.91, a signal that investors remain confident about the U.S. economy.

While the January data suggests continued growth in 2012, rising oil prices may cause consumers to cutback on spending.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mayor: Sacramento 'on the verge of doing something very special' with arena vote

With the City Council expected to approve a non-binding financial plan for a new downtown sports arena tonight, Mayor Kevin Johnson told reporters this morning that "we're on the verge of doing something very special."

"We're finally at the point where we have one single vote, one moment in time to totally transform the downtown community and Sacramento for generations," he said.

The council is expected to approve a "term sheet" for a $391 million arena. The city has proposed contributing 65 percent of the project cost, mostly through either leasing or borrowing against downtown parking.

The Kings and arena operator AEG have agreed to chip in $132 million to the project.

Johnson said he was comfortable with the public contribution, saying "we knew we would have to be partners" and that the private contribution "rivals any other commitment made in recent years" to arenas in other cities.

The city's contribution is in line with what other cities have put into arenas in recent years. Several arenas have been built with smaller contributions from sports teams than what the Kings have agreed to pay.

Dennis Howard, a University of Oregon sports business professor, told The Bee's Dale Kasler that arenas built since 2005 have averaged a 65 percent funding contribution from the public.

A decade ago, cities were putting up between 75 to 100 percent of arena costs. That's shrunk somewhat, as cities' budgets were hammered by the recession and taxpayers became less sympathetic to sports teams' demands, said Michael Mondello, a sports management professor at Florida State University.

Mondello is among the critics who question why local governments help pay for sports facilities at all. "Public subsidies of sports stadiums is bad policy," Mondello said. "What is Sacramento sacrificing in terms of other infrastructure improvements and police safety?"

Locally, Councilwoman Sandy Sheedy has emerged as one of the most vocal opponents of Sacramento's arena plan. Earlier today, she sent a report compiled by her office to her colleagues on the City Council - but not the mayor - questioning the arena project.

Most notably, Sheedy's report stated that downtown stadiums do not spark economic development in urban cores, that money spent at arenas is generally taken away from other places and that it is impossible to measure whether keeping the Kings would have any impact on civic pride in Sacramento. The report cited the work of several economists and previously published reports on arena projects.

The mayor said it was Sheedy's "prerogative" to release as much information she thinks is helpful prior to the council debate. But, he said, "I think at this point, it is very clear we have a win-win."