Office Address
Department of Economics
1285 University of Oregon
Eugene, OR 97403-1285, U.S.A.
Office phone: (541)-346-4662
email: gevans "at" uoregon "dot" edu
Personal Data: U.S. Citizen, Married, Two adult children.
Education
University of California, Berkeley, B.A., Mathematics, 1974, Phi Beta Kappa.
Balliol College, Oxford University, B.A., Economics and Politics (P.P.E.), 1972.
University of California, Berkeley, M.A., Statistics, 1976.
University of California, Berkeley, Ph.D., Economics, 1980.
Academic Appointments
Since September 1994, Professor, John B. Hamacher Chair of Economics, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA. College of Arts and Sciences Distinguished Professor, 2005.
Since Oct. 2007, Part-time Professor of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Scotland.
1993-1994, Professor, George Watson's and Daniel Stewart's Chair of Political Economy, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
1987-1992, Lecturer (1984-5 and 1987-1989), promoted to Senior Lecturer (1989-1992) and Reader (1992), Department of Economics, London School of Economics, London, UK
1991 - 1992, Visiting Professor, School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
1981 - 1987, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University, CA.
1978 - 1981, Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Stirling, Scotland.
1974 - 1978, Teaching Assistant, Research Assistant, Acting Instructor, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
Publications
"The Stability of Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models", in Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: "Rational Expectations" Examined, ed. by R. Frydman and E. S. Phelps. Cambridge University Press, 1983, pp. 69-94.
"Tests for Rationality of the Carlson-Parkin Inflation Expectations Data " (with R. Gulamani), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46, February 1984, pp. 1-19.
"Bottlenecks and the Phillips Curve: A Disaggregated Keynesian Model of Inflation, Output and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Vol. 95, June 1985, pp. 345-357.
"Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. C, no. 403, November 1985, pp. 1217-1234.
"A Complete Characterization of ARMA Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Studies, Vol. LIII, April 1986, pp. 227-239.
"Selection Criteria for Models with Non-uniqueness", Journal of Monetary Economics, September 1986, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 147-157.
"A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84", American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 4, September 1986, pp. 621-636.
"The Structure of ARMA Solutions to a General Linear Model with Rational Expectations", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 11, 1987, pp. 79-91.
"The Conduct of Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Unemployment", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 21, No.4, November 1989, pp. 498-507.
"Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985", Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 4, No.3, July-September 1989, pp. 213-237.
"A Measure of the U.S. Output Gap", Economics Letters, vol. 29, 1989, pp. 285-289.
"The Fragility of Sunspots and Bubbles", Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.23, 1989, pp. 297-317.
"Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices", American Economic Review, vol. 81, no. 4, September 1991, pp. 922-930.
"On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models", (with Seppo Honkapohja), International Economic Review, vol. 33, no. 1, February 1992, pp.1 -14.
"Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics" (with Garey Ramey), American Economic Review, vol. 82, no. 1, March 1992, pp. 207-224.
"Learning and Economic Fluctuations: Using Fiscal Policy to Steer Expectations" (with Seppo Honkapohja), European Economic Review, Vol. 37, 1993, pp. 595-602.
"Adaptive Forecasts, Hysteresis and Endogenous Fluctuations" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1993, No. 1, pp. 3-13.
"On the Preservation of Deterministic Cycles when some Agents Perceive Them to be Random Fluctuations" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Thomas J. Sargent), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 17, 1993, pp. 705-721.
"Rationalizability, Strong Rationality and Expectational Stability" (with Roger Guesnerie), Games and Economic Behavior, Special Issue on Learning Dynamics, Vol. 5, October 1993, pp. 632-646.
"Sectoral Imbalance and Unemployment in the United Kingdom", Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 45, no. 3, July 1993, pp. 440-456.
"Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle" (with Lucrezia Reichlin), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 33, 1994, pp. 233-254.
"Convergence of Least Squares Learning to a Non-Stationary Equilibrium" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economics Letters, Vol. 46, 1994, pp. 131-136.
"On the Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 64, No. 1, October 1994, pp. 142-161.
"Learning, Convergence and Stability with Multiple Rational Expectations Equilibria" (with Seppo Honkapohja), European Economic Review, Vol. 38, 1994, pp. 1071-1098.
"Expectational Stability and Adaptive Learning: An Introduction" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Ch. 4 in Learning and Rationality in Economics (A. Kirman and M. Salmon, Eds.,), 1995, Basil Blackwell: Oxford, pp. 102-126.
"Increasing Social Returns, Learning and Bifurcation Phenomena" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Ch. 7 in Learning and Rationality in Economics (A. Kirman and M. Salmon, Eds.,), 1995, Basil Blackwell: Oxford, pp. 216-235.
"Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Econometrica, Vol. 63, No. 1, 1995, pp. 195-206.
"Expectation Calculation, Hyperinflation and Currency Collapse" (with Garey Ramey), in The New Macroeconomics: Imperfect Markets and Policy Effectiveness, ed. Huw Dixon and Neil Rankin, Cambridge University Press, 1995, Ch. 15, 307-336.
"Least Squares Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economics Letters, Vol. 53, No. 2, Nov. 1996, 197-201.
"Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 65, Jan. 1998, 23-44.
"Calculation, Adaptation and Rational Expectations" (with Garey Ramey), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 2, 1998, pp. 156-182.
"Growth Cycles" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Paul Romer), American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No.3, June 1998, pp. 495-515.
"Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Mathematical Economics. Vol. 30, 1998, pp.59-86.
"Stochastic Gradient Learning in the Cobweb Model" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economics Letters, Vol. 61, 1998, pp. 333-337.
"Learning Dynamics" (with Seppo Honkapohja), chapter 7 of the Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol.1, eds. J. Taylor and M. Woodford, 1999, North-Holland, pp.449-542.
"Convergence of Difference Equations with Vanishing Time-Dependence, with Applications to Adaptive Learning" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economic Theory, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2000, pp. 717-725.
"Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Ramon Marimon), Macroeconomics Dynamics, Vol. 5, 2001, pp. 1-31.
"Expectations in Macroeconomics: Adaptive vs. Eductive Learning," Revue Economique, Vol. 52, No. 3, May 2001, pp. 573-582.
"Coordination on Saddle Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Univariate Models" (with Roger Guesnerie), Macroeconomics Dynamics, Vol. 7, 2003, 42-62.
“Introduction to the Special Issue: Coordination in Dynamic Expectations Models: Learning and Sunspots” (with Roger Guesnerie), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 7, 2003, 3-6.
"Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 111, 2003, 125-134.
"Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 28, 2003, pp. 171-181.
"Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 50, 550-566.
“Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies” (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 70, 2003, 807-824.
"Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 35, 2003, 1045-72.
"Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia" (with Bruce McGough), Economic Letters, Vol. 87, 2005, 1-7.
"Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 8, 2005, 303-323.
"Stable Sunspot Equilibria in Models with Predetermined Variables" (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 29, 2005, 6001-625.
"Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies" (with Bruce McGough), Contributions to Macroeconomics: Vol. 5: No. 1, 2005.
"Coordination on Saddle Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint - Linear Multivariate Models" (with Roger Guesnerie), Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 124, 2005, 202-229.
"Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning" (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 29, 2005, 1809-1840.
"Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation" (with William A. Branch), Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 127, 2006, 264-295.
"A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model" (with William A. Branch), Economics Letters, Vol. 91, 2006, 158-166.
"Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, 2006, 15-38.
"Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique" (with Garey Ramey), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 53, 2006, 249-264.
"Are Hyperinflationary Paths Learnable" (with Klaus Adam and Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 30, 2006, 2725-2748.
"The E-Correspondence Principle" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Economica, Vol. 74, 2007, 33-50.
"Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Ramon Marimon), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, Vol. 7: Iss.1 (Advances), Article 3.
"Model Uncertainty with Endogenous Volatility" (with William Branch), Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 10, 2007, 207-237.
"Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules" (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 39, 2007, 1335-1356.
"Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices" (with Seppo Honkapohja), Macroeonomic Dynamics, Vol. 11, 2007, 665 – 690.
"Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off" (with William Branch, John Carlson and Bruce McGough), Economic Journal, Vol. 119, 123 - 157.
"Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?" (with Avik Chakraborty), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 55, 2008, 477 - 490.
“Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-Rational Exuberance” (with James Bullard and Seppo Honkapohja), American Economic Review, Vol. 98, 2008, 1163 - 1177.
"Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation" (with Eran Guse and Seppo Honkapohja), European Economic Review, Vol. 52, 2008, 1438 – 1463.
“Learning and Macroeconomics” (with Seppo Honkapohja), Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 1, 2009, 421-449.
“Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research” (with Seppo Honkapohja), in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, ed. by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Carl Walsh, 2009, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, pp. 27-76.
“Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules” (with Seppo Honkapohja), in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, ed. by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Carl Walsh, 2009, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, pp. 145-170.
"Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 56, 2009, 930-953.
“A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance,” (with James Bullard and Seppo Honkapohja), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 14, 2010, 166-188.
“Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning” (with Seppo Honkapohja and Noah Williams), International Economic Review, Vol. 51, 2010, 237-262.
“Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia” (with Bruce McGough), The B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Topics), Vol. 10: Iss. 1, 2010, article 5.
“Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy” (with Seppo Honkapohja), in Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects, edited by David Cobham, Øyvind Eitrheim, Stefan Gerlach and Jan F Qvigstad, Cambridge University Press, 2010, chapter 11, 232-260.
“Asset Return Dynamics and Learning” (with William A. Branch), Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 23, 2010, 1651-1680.
"Representations and Sunspot Stability" (with Bruce McGough), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 15, 2011, 80-92.
“Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations,” (with William Branch), Economic Theory, Vol. 47, 2011, 365-393.
“Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes” (with William A. Branch), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 3, 2011, 159-191.
“Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold when Agents are not Rational?" (with Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra), Journal of Money, Credit and B__anking, Vol. 44, 2012, 1259-1283.
“Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance” (with Seppo Honkapohja), in Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics, Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps (eds.), Princeton University Press, 2013.
“Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection” (with Seppo Honkapohja, Thomas J. Sargent and Noah Williams), in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, edited by T.J. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, Oxford University Press, 2013.
“Finite Horizon Learning” (with William A. Branch and Bruce McGough), in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, edited by T.J. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, Oxford University Press, 2013.
"The Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Recent US Policy", in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, edited by T.J. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, Oxford University Press, 2013.
“Bubbles, Crashes and Risk” (with William A. Branch), Economics Letters, Vol. 120, 2013, 254-258.
“Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model” (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 37, 2013, 1947-1971.
“Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?” (with Jess Benhabib and Seppo Honkapohja), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 45, 2014, 220-238.
“Unstable Inflation Targets” (with William A. Branch), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 49, 2017, 767 – 806.
“Equilibrium Selection, Observability and Backward-stable Solutions” (with Bruce McGough), Vol. 98, 2018, 1 – 10.
“Interest Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models” (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 50, 2018, 939 – 965.
“Fiscal Policy Multipliers in an RBC Model with Learning,” (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja), Macreconomic Dynamics, Vol. 23, 2019, 240 – 283.
“Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models” (with Roger Guesnerie and Bruce McGough), Economic Journal, Vol. 129, 2019, 821 – 852.
“Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple Macro Model,” (with Jasmina Arifovic and Olena Kostyshyna), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 110, January 2020, 103775.
“Stable near-rational Sunspot Equilibria” (with Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 186, March 2020, 104987.
“Learning When to Say No” (with David Evans and Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 194, 2021, 105240.
“Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: a Nonlinear Analysis” (with Kaushik Mitra and Seppo Honkapohja), International Economic Review, Volume 63, August 2022, 1397-1425 2022.
“Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments” (with Isabelle Salle, Cars Hommes and Bruce McGough), Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 132, Nov. 2022, 44 - 63.
"The RPEs and RBCs and other DSGEs (with David Evans and Bruce McGough), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 143 (2022), 104492.
"Social Learning" (with Bruce McGough), September 2023, forthcoming Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
"A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast" (with Christopher Gibbs and Bruce McGough), February 2024, forthcoming American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Current Research Papers
"Learning to Optimize" (with Bruce McGough), 2018, under revision
Book
Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics (with Seppo Honkapohja), Princeton University Press, January 2001.
Published Encyclopedia Entries:
"Learning in Macroeconomics" (with Seppo Honkapohja), New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, second edition, 2008.
“Economics of Expectations” (with Seppo Honkapohja), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier Science, second edition, 2015.
“Adaptive Learning in Macroeconomics” (with Bruce McGough), July 2020, forthcoming Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, 2020
“Agent-level Adaptive Learning” (with Bruce McGough), Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, 2021
Professional Activities
Associate Editor, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, from January 1995.
Co-Editor/Associate Editor, Macroeconomic Dynamics, from December 1996.
Board of Editors, American Economic Review, April 1991-April 1994.
Board of Advisors, Journal of Economic Surveys, from January 1995.
External Advisor, Aix-Marseille School of Economics Research Council, 2014-2018.
Consultant, Centre for Labour Economics, LSE, 1988 - 1989.
Consultant, Financial Markets Group, LSE, 1990 - 1992.
Visiting Scholar/Consultant, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February-August 1992.
Distinguished Visitor, U.C. San Diego, March 1995.
Professor Invité, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Science Sociales, Paris, April 1996, June 2001.
Visiting Scholar/Consultant, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 1997, April 2001.
Visiting Scholar/Consultant, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March 2002, April 2003, May 2004, Sept. 2005, July 2006 & 2008, July 2009.
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 2003, September 2005, July 2006 - 8.
Visiting Scholar, Institute for Monetary and Economic Statistics, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, 4/2007.
Professeur Invité, Université Paris X - Nanterre, France, September 2007.
Grants Received
National Science Foundation, Co-Principal Investigator with Bruce McGough, “Expectation Coordination and Agent-level Learning,” SES-1559209, 2016-2020
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, “Learning and the Planning Horizon: Applications to Economic Fluctuations, Asset Prices and Policy,” SES-1025011, 2010-2013
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, "Bounded Rationality and Macroeconomic Policy", SES-0617859, 2006-2009.
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, "Expectations, Learning and Economic Policy", SES-0136848, 2002-2005.
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, "Expectations and Economic Fluctuations", SBR-9617501, 1997-2000.
National Science Foundation Grant SES 92-10405, "Calculation Behavior and Bounded Rationality in Economic Models" (with Garey Ramey), 1992-1994.
European Community SPES Grant ERB4010PL900056, "Convergence of Learning Mechanisms in Dynamic Economic Models" (with S. Honkapohja), 1991-1994.
National Science Foundation, Principal Investigator, Grant No.8510763, "The Characterization of ARMA Solutions to General Linear Rational Expectations Models and an Analysis of their Expectational Stability", 1986-88.
Center for Economic Policy Research, Stanford, Principal Investigator, "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on the Distribution of Bottlenecks and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," 1985-87.
Teaching
Courses currently or previously taught at the University of Oregon:
Macroeconomics Core course (First year Ph. D.)
Topics in Macroeconomics (Graduate Field Course)
Advanced Macroeconomics (Masters course)
Intermediate Macroeconomics (Undergraduate)
Econometrics (First year graduate)
Time Series Analysis (Graduate level)
Other teaching experience:
Undergraduate: Econometrics, Forecasting, Applied macroeconomic analysis, Optimization and economic analysis, Macroeconomics principles, Problems of applied economics (macroeconomics).
Graduate: Macroeconomic core theory, Monetary theory, Advanced macroeconomic topics, Econometrics, Topics on expectations and learning in macroeconomics.