GroupThink

  1. Victims of Groupthink (Janis, 1972)
    1. Historical analysis of several decision-making fiascos from the perspective of group dynamics (e.g., Appeasement of Hitler, Pearl Harbor, Bay of Pigs, Korean War, Vietnam War)
  2. Essence of GroupThink
    1. Decision-making defects
    2. Discussions limited to only a few alternatives; no survey of possibilities
    3. Originally preferred solution not reevaluated for nonobvious drawbacks
    4. Alternatives initially discarded never reevaluated for nonobvious assets.
    5. Lack of consultation with outside experts
    6. Selective processing of information
    7. Failed to consider how other groups might react and failed to develop contingency plans.
  3. Symptoms of GroupThink
    1. Illusion of invulnerability
    2. Collective efforts to rationalize -- to discount warnings
    3. An unquestioned belief in the group's inherent morality
    4. Stereotyped views of the enemy
    5. Direct pressure on dissenters within the group
    6. Self-censorship of dissent
    7. Illusion of unanimity
    8. Emergence of self-appointed mind-guards
  4. Causes of GroupThink
    1. High Cohesion
      1. Group highly valued
      2. In-group/out-group effects
      3. In-group is good, powerful, smart; out-group is bad, weak, stupid
      4. Powerful normative influences
      5. Powerful conformity pressures
      6. Powerful sanction capabilities
    2. Isolation
      1. Failure to disconfirm erroneous judgments
    3. Bounded rationality (Simon)
      1. Human decision-making is limited by inability to process large problems and information.
      2. Human decision-making strives to satisfice not maximize.
      3. Search order becomes important
      4. Short run easier to predict than long run
      5. Reliance on previously developed repetoires (SOP's)