GroupThink
- Victims of Groupthink (Janis, 1972)
- Historical analysis of several decision-making fiascos from
the perspective of group dynamics (e.g., Appeasement of Hitler,
Pearl Harbor, Bay of Pigs, Korean War, Vietnam War)
- Essence of GroupThink
- Decision-making defects
- Discussions limited to only a few alternatives; no survey
of possibilities
- Originally preferred solution not reevaluated for nonobvious
drawbacks
- Alternatives initially discarded never reevaluated for nonobvious
assets.
- Lack of consultation with outside experts
- Selective processing of information
- Failed to consider how other groups might react and failed
to develop contingency plans.
- Symptoms of GroupThink
- Illusion of invulnerability
- Collective efforts to rationalize -- to discount warnings
- An unquestioned belief in the group's inherent morality
- Stereotyped views of the enemy
- Direct pressure on dissenters within the group
- Self-censorship of dissent
- Illusion of unanimity
- Emergence of self-appointed mind-guards
- Causes of GroupThink
- High Cohesion
- Group highly valued
- In-group/out-group effects
- In-group is good, powerful, smart; out-group is bad, weak,
stupid
- Powerful normative influences
- Powerful conformity pressures
- Powerful sanction capabilities
- Isolation
- Failure to disconfirm erroneous judgments
- Bounded rationality (Simon)
- Human decision-making is limited by inability to process large
problems and information.
- Human decision-making strives to satisfice not maximize.
- Search order becomes important
- Short run easier to predict than long run
- Reliance on previously developed repetoires (SOP's)