Math 343 (Phillips)
This is the home page for N. C. Phillips'
Math 343 at the University of Oregon, Spring Quarter 2021.
Quick links
Contents
Read this first
First read the
important information about this course.
Contents:
Back to top of page.
Basic course information
This section contains administrative information.
See below for information on
learning objectives,
the schedule,
exams,
homework,
grading,
academic conduct,
course documents,
and important dates.

Course number: Math 343.

Course title: Statistic Models and Methods.

CRN: 33486.

Instructor: N. Christopher
Phillips.

The Course Assistant is Stewart McGinnis,
stewartm@uoregon.edu.
His office hours are
Tuesdays 56 pm, Thursdays 23 pm, and Fridays 35 pm, at
Zoom
meeting ID 925 2646 9740.
Password required;
get it via email or use the link on
Canvas,
where the password is embedded in the link.

UO
class schedule page for this course.

Course time and place: MWF 11:00 am12:00 noon, remote via
Zoom meeting ID
996 1304 6108.
Password required; get it via email or use the link on
Canvas,
where the password is embedded in the link.

"Classroom" procedures:

You will be muted on entry.
If you want to ask a question, unmute yourself and speak up;
otherwise, to keep down background noise,
please keep yourself muted.
Warning:
I will not follow my email in real time.
I am unlikely to be able to follow the Zoom chat in real time,
but may occasionally check it,
and I am unlikely to see raised hands.
Please just speak up.

I plan on giving several short breaks during each lecture.

Video recordings of lectures will be posted on the
University of Oregon Panopto website, usually the same day.
URLs will be sent in email to the class.
Pdf files of what I write during the lecture will be posted
on the course website.
If you notice that video recording
(or live transcription, if we use it) is off during a lecture,
please let me know right away, again by speaking up.

If my internet connection goes down during a lecture
(this has happened),
the course meeting will probably be killed.
Usually it is back within 15 minutes.

Office hours:
Mondays and Thursdays 3:004:00 pm, Tuesdays 11:00 am12:00 noon
(this is changed from the originally given times),
remotely, at
Zoom meeting ID
929 6845 7904
(not the same as the class meeting ID),
or by
appointment.
You will be in a waiting room on entry; no password needed.
Office hours will be subject to occasional rescheduling because of
committee meetings.
I may also meet with students working with me individually
during these times, but such meetings are secondary;
you have priority,
and you are expected to interrupt meetings with other students.
Email.

No html only email!
You
will need
to change the default settings on UO email programs.
Some
of the tracking I avoid by not reading html email.

The subject line of your message should start with
"M343", followed by your last name,
then first initial.

No Microsoft Word, PowerPoint, or Excel files.
I do not accept these under any circumstances,
since I don't have software that reads them.

No mime encoding or other encoding of ordinary text messages.
No binary characters
please send plain text
(7 bit ASCII)
only.
That is, only the characters found on a standard English
language keyboard; no curved quotation marks, curved apostrophes,
accented letters, Greek letters, etc.
(For writing math in plain text email, see
this
page.)

I will use email to distribute general announcements,
including locations of videos of lectures.
I will give short replies to emailed questions.
I don't type at a reasonable
speed, so I will rarely answer complicated questions by email.
Please come to office hours instead.

Official course description (from the
Mathematics
section of the Catalog of Courses;
link goes to the beginning of the list of math courses):
Review of theory and applications of mathematical statistics including
estimation and hypothesis testing.
Prereq: MATH 252.

Textbook:
Martin Buntinas and Gerald M Funk,
Statistics for the Sciences,
Brooks/Cole, 2005.
The book appears not to be available.
There is supposed to be a "course parket" available
at the bookstore,
but I don't actually know if it is there.
If it isn't, see Canvas.

Prerequisite:
Math 252 or equivalent.
Math 247 is also fine, although not recognized by the UO
course registration system.
If necessary,
contact me
for a prerequisite override.

Syllabus (pdf).
(Link does not yet work.)

Instructions for written
homework (pdf).

Extra credit will be given for identifying errors and misprints
in any course materials,
with more extra credit for mathematical errors.
(You must say what the correct version is supposed to be,
and only the first two people to catch an error can get extra credit.)

Students with documented learning disabilities who wish to
use the
Accessible Education Center
to
take
tests under specifically arranged conditions
should let me know as soon as possible,
certainly by Wednesday of the third week of classes.
Such students must also
be sure to meet the Accessible Education Center's
separate deadlines for requests.
Normally (procedures may differ now),
these are likely to be a week or more
in advance of the exam date (much more for final exams),
and I can't do anything to help a student who misses its deadline.
(I have tried in the past.)
Back to top of page.
Learning objectives
By the end of the quarter, the successful student will have
knowledge of the basic tools of statistics and the knowledge
of probability theory necessary to understand basic models and tests
used in statistics.
In particular, the successful student will be expected to understand
the notion of a random variable and its density function and
distribution function, as well as typical types of random variables
used in statistics such as Bernoulli, binomial, uniform, and normal
random variables.
Additionally, the successful student will be expected to understand
and be able to use certain quantities associated to random
variables, for instance mean, variance, and percentiles, their
probabilitic interpretation, and how to estimate these quantities
from data.
The statistical content of the course will be mostly
modeling and hypothesis testing.
The successful student will have an understanding of how to model
certain testing situations by various types of standard random
variables, how to form hypotheses from simple data, and how to
confirm or reject (as appropriatate) a hypothesis within a certain
confidence interval under various assumptions on the data.
Back to top of page.
Schedule
To be filled in soon.
Back to top of page.
Exams
The final exam is at 10:15 Monday 7 June.
The midterm will be Monday 3 May, in class.
(It was tentatively scheduled for Friday 30 April; changed by in class
discussion Monday 26 April.)
Remaining information to be filled in soon.
Exam policies
All exams are cumulative, although they will
usually emphasize the most recent material.
All exams
will cover material through the most recently turned in homework.
All exams will be open book, and will allow calculators.
No interactive help will be allowed.
This applies to in person help or internet based help,
including but not limited to internet searches,
the posting of problems to or reading solutions from any website,
etc.
At least 80% of the points on each of the midterm
and the final exam
will be based on homework problems (both written and
WeBWorK),
and on problems on separate supplementary lists (including sample exams).
Written homework will contain problems of types which are good
for exams but do not appear in
WeBWorK.
Note that numbers may be changed in these problems.
Similarly variable names, function names, and names of people etc. in
word problems may be changed.
Examples from Math 251:
f (x) = 2x^3 could become any of
f (x) = 4 x^3, f (x) = 2 x^{4}, g (x) = 2 x^3, or f (t) = 2 t^3.
In Math 251,
such changes might turn a local maximum into a local minimum
or result in other such reversals.
Complaints about the grading of any exam must be submitted in
writing by the beginning of the first class period after the class in
which that exam is returned.
Except where obviously inapplicable
(such as in the parts about working with other people,
or where explicitly contradicted by exam instructions),
the
general
instructions for written homework
also apply to exams.
Homework
There will be two kinds of homework.
Quick links:
WeBWorK;
list containing written homework assignments
(and other documents).
Written homework
Written homework will be submitted via Canvas, usually Wednesdays.
Assignments will mostly be by problem number in the book;
see the list below (to be updated throughout the quarter).
Most of them will probably be graded by a homework grader.
Read the separate
Instructions for written
homework (pdf);
here is a brief summary of the most important points:

No spaces (or other improper characters) in file names.

Submit as a single file, presumably pdf
(not Microsoft Word).

If you cooperate with someone else, that person's name
must appear below yours.

Simplify all answers.

Show your work.

Use correct notation.
(In particular, use enough parentheses.)
It is assumed that you know that the notation described as
being wrong here is in fact wrong.
Assignments using WeBWorK
will be done on the internet,
here.
Your WeBWorK account name is your UO email account name
(without the "@uoregon.edu" part),
and your password is the one you use for things like
University of Oregon email.
Thus, if your UO email address is "lqwang@uoregon.edu"
and your password is "IHateSpam",
your WeBWorK account name will be "lqwang" and
your password will be "IHateSpam".
Due dates for
WeBWorK
assignments are as specified online,
and the day of the week will vary.
The login page will fail with no explanation if cookies are off,
and
WeBWorK
will fail if JavaScript is off.
(To protect privacy, I advise deleting all cookies after you are done,
for this site or anywhere else.
I also advise turning JavaScript off when you leave the site.)
The
WeBWorK home page
has links to all Winter 2021 UO courses using WeBWorK,
and login instructions.
Warning:
In the past there have sometimes been problems with the WeBWorK server.
Most such problems are fairly minor:
it is down for a few hours or overnight.
Occasionally there have been much more serious problems,
for example, no access for a week, completed homework lost, etc.
Most quarters, nothing like this happens.
Advantages of WeBWorK:

All your work gets graded.

Grading is done quickly.

Multiple attempts may be allowed.
Disadvantages of WeBWorK:

No partial credit.

Only the final answer is graded.
(But many graders do this anyway.)

WeBWorK is picky about format
(but this is something you will have to get used to anyway).
Some warnings:

Variables are case sensitive.

Some notation used in WeBWorK is artificial,
and is not correct in written work.
(For example, since "DNE" is not a number,
expressions such as "lim ... = DNE"
are meaningless.)

Read the instructions for each problem separately!
Different problems were written by different people.
For example, sometimes infinity is supposed to be "INF"
and sometimes "infinity".
Problems requiring notation for intervals, units,
or other uncommon notation
are supposed to have links to instructions,
but not all of them do.
Some problems actually tell you to use wrong notation.
General instructions for entering the kinds of sets likely to
arise as domains and ranges are
here.
(Warning: some problems may have incompatible instructions,
and the correct symbol for "union" outside WeBWorK
resembles, but is not the same as, capital "U".)
It doesn't seem to be in the practice assignment,
but the square root of x can be entered as "sqrt (x)".
Also, "x^(1/2)" gives x to the 1/2 power,
which is the same thing.

The number of attempts allowed on a question may vary.

Be sure to log out of WeBWorK after use!
About the homework:

Doing the homework seriously is the most important
thing you can do to succeed in this course.
Start early, and do some every day.
I encourage you to work together on homework,
as long as the work you do is really your own.

The best way to do the
WeBWorK
homework
is to print out the homework,
do the problems, and then enter the numeric and symbolic answers.
Each student's problems will be similar but individualized.
So the
same techniques will work to solve your homework as your friend's,
but the answers will be different.

Please do ask questions about the homework, or any other aspect
of the course in class.
I will always be happy to spend the first few
minutes of class dealing with homework questions, or questions from
previous lectures, so come prepared!

In order to ask questions effectively,
make notes to yourself as you
review lectures (and discover points that are unclear to you),
as you study the text
(and notice things that you are not sure you understand),
and as you work on homework and come to problems you have trouble with.
Back to top of page.
Grading
Grading percentages
Grading percentages (still subject to change):

The midterm will be about 30% of the grade.

The final exam will be about 40% of the grade.

Written homework will be about 15% of the grade.

WeBWorK
homework will be about 15% of the grade.
Course grade limited by final exam grade
The course grade will not be more than one letter grade
above the final exam grade.
For this purpose, scores more than one grade interval
below the D/F cutoff will be considered to be "F",
and limit the final course grade to F.
In particular, not taking the final exam means an F in the course,
even with perfect scores on everything else.
Extra credit
There will probably be extra credit problems
on the midterm and on the final exam.
They will only be counted if you get a grade
of 75% or better on the main part of the exam.
I will award extra credit points to the first two people
who catch any particular error or misprint in the book
or in any of the handouts,
in particular, in solutions to midterms, homework, etc.,
as well as on web pages etc. (this includes broken links).
The largest amount of extra credit is given for catching
mathematical mistakes.
You must point out exactly where the mistake is,
and how it should be fixed.
Extra credit will count toward the grade only for those who
consistently do the homework reasonably,
and only for those whose grade in the course would be at least a
B without it.
Back to top of page.
Academic conduct
The code of student conduct and
community standards is
here.
In this course, it is
appropriate to help each other on homework as long as the work you are
submitting is your own and you understand it,
and, on written homework,
you give the names of any people you cooperated with.
It is not appropriate
to help each other on exams, to look at other students' exams,
or to use unauthorized material on exams.
Back to top of page.
Publicly available documents
associated with this course
Here is a list of publicly available documents and other information
associated with this course.
The material is arranged in approximate chronological order:
most recent items at the bottom.
Links to written homework solutions,
exams, and exam solutions will not work until after
the corresponding written homework has been turned in
or the corresponding exam has been given, and
the links to sample exams and their solutions will not work until
these items have been prepared.
Most files will be pdf.

Week 1.

Week 2.

This week's reading: Sections 3.13.5.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of Monday 5 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 1 (Monday 5 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of Monday 5 April 2021.

Monday 5 April at 8:00 pm:
WeBWorK
assignment "Wk01Part2"
due.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of 7 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 2 (Wednesday 7 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of 7 April 2021.

Wednesday 7 April at 8:00 pm: Written Homework 1 due on
Canvas.
Problems from the textbook:
1.2, 1.3, 1.7, 1.13, 1.14, 2.10, 2.16.
Write full solutions to all of these.
The grader will be asked to look at all of them, but will be asked
to read solutions to 1.13, 2.10, 2.16 in detail, so be particularly
careful to give full explanations for these.
For 1.3, you might want
the book's table of
random numbers.

Solutions (not proofread!) to
Written Homework 1.
Corrections in Problem 1.13
made about 3:00 pm Sunday 11 April.
Catching errors is worth extra credit!
(There are surely still others.)

Difference file (pdf) showing the changes to
the solutions to Written Homework 1.
The difference file has
new text wavy underlined in blue and old text crossed out in red.
More
information.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of 9 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 3 (Friday 9 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of Friday 9 April 2021.

Friday 9 April at 8:00 pm:
WeBWorK
assignment "Wk02Part1"
due.

Week 3.

This week's reading: Sections 3.5, 3.6, 4.1, and 4.2.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of Monday 12 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 1 (Monday 12 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of Monday 12 April 2021.

Monday 12 April at 8:00 pm:
WeBWorK
assignment "Wk02Part2"
due.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of 14 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 2 (Wednesday 14 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of 14 April 2021.

Wednesday 14 April at 8:00 pm: Written Homework 2 due on
Canvas.
Problems from the textbook:
3.3, 3.4, 3.6, 3.8, 3.9, 3.10, 3.12, 3.14.
Write full solutions to all of these.
The grader will be asked to look at all of them, but will be asked
to read solutions to 3.4, 3.10, 3.12 in detail, so be particularly
careful to give full explanations for these.

Solutions
for Written Homework 2.
No proofreading has been done!

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of 16 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 2 (Friday 16 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of 16 April 2021.

Friday 16 April at 8:00 pm:
WeBWorK
assignment "Wk03Part1"
due.

Week 4.

This week's reading: Sections 4.44.7 and 5.1.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of 19 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 1 (Monday 19 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of 19 April 2021.

Monday 19 April at 8:00 pm:
WeBWorK
assignment "Wk03Part2"
due.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of 21 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 2 (Wednesday 21 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of 21 April 2021.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of 23 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 3 (Friday 23 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of 23 April 2021.

Friday 23 April at 8:00 pm: Written Homework 3 due on
Canvas.
(Postponed from Wednesday.)
Problems from the textbook:
3.20, 3.24, 3.28, 3.29, 3.41, 3.53, 4.4, 4.6.
Write full solutions to all of these, including,
in particular, showing the reasoning for 3.29 and 3.41.
The grader will be asked to look at all of them, but will be asked
to read solutions to 3.41, 3.53, 4.6 in detail, so be particularly
careful to give full explanations for these.

Solutions
for Written Homework 3.
No proofreading has been done!

Saturday 24 April at 8:00 pm:
WeBWorK
assignment "Wk04Part1"
due.
(Postponed one day because of the postponement of Written Homework 3.)

Week 5.

This week's reading: Sections 4.44.7, 5.1.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 1 (Monday 26 April 2021).

Monday 26 April at 8:00 pm:
WeBWorK
assignment "Wk04Part2"
due.

Problem
for the beginning of the lecture of 28 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 2 (Wednesday 28 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of 28 April 2021.

Wednesday 28 April at 8:00 pm: Written Homework 4 due on
Canvas.
Problems from the textbook: 4.10, 4.11,
4.16 (part a: omit the histogram), 4.23, 4.26, 4.28, 4.30,
5.2 (misprint: encode white with 0, not yellow with 0), 5.4.
Write full solutions to all of these.
The grader will be asked to look at all of them,
but will be asked to read solutions to 4.23, 4.30, 5.4 in detail,
so be particularly careful to give full explanations for these.

Solutions
for Written Homework 4.
Corrected (about 1:45 pm Sunday 2 May), with graphs added.

Difference file (pdf)
showing the changes to
the solutions to Written Homework 4.
The difference file has
new text wavy underlined in red and old text crossed out in blue.
More
information.
Not enough proofreading has been done!

Written file from office
hour of Thursday 29 April.
It discusses several things related to Wednesday's lecture:
expected value using several problems like the lecture problem,
whether certain random variables are binomial,
and the probability of getting tails twice in four flips of a
biased coin.

Problem
for the lecture of 30 April 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 3 (Friday 30 April 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the lecture of 30 April 2021.

Friday 30 April, 1:30 pm3:30 pm:
Review session, at
Zoom meeting ID
996 1304 6108
(the usual class meeting).
Written file
used in the review session.

Saturday 1 May at 8:00 pm:
WeBWorK
assignment "Wk05Part1"
due.

Week 6.

Week 7.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 1 (Monday 10 May 2021).

Problem
for the lecture of 12 May 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 2 (Wednesday 12 May 2021).
This file was corrected Thursday 13 May at about 11:30 pm.
The corrected file adds the inserted image for the
computation on page 2, about half way down the page.

Solution
to the problem for the lecture of 12 May 2021.

Thursday 13 May at 8:00 pm: Written Homework 5 due on
Canvas.
(Postponed from Wednesday.)
Problems from the textbook:
6.4, 6.8, 6.14, 6.17, 6.19, 6.20, 6.22, 6.23.
Write full solutions to all of these.
The grader will be asked to look at all of them, but will be asked
to read solutions to 6.8, 6.20, 6.22 in detail, so be particularly
careful to give full explanations for these.
Warning on Problem 6.4:
α is not the probability of making a Type I error.
The probability of making a Type I error is
the probability that you reject the null hypothesis
and the null hypothesis is true.
The number α is
the probability that you reject the null hypothesis
given that the null hypothesis is true.
In this problem, you should compute
the probability of making a Type I error rather than α.
Similar considerations apply to β.

Solutions
for Written Homework 5.
Little proofreading has been done!

Problem
for the lecture of 14 May 2021.

Solution
to the problem for the lecture of 14 May 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 3 (Friday 14 May 2021).

Week 8.

Week 9.

This week's reading: Chapter 10 and Sections 11.1 and 11.2.

Problem
for the lecture of 24 May 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 1 (Monday 24 May 2021).

Solution
to the beginning of the lecture of 24 May 2021.

Problem
for the lecture of 26 May 2021.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 2 (Wednesday 26 May 2021).

Solution
to the problem for the beginning of the lecture of 26 May 2021.

Wednesday 26 May at 8:00 pm: Written Homework 7 due on
Canvas.
Problems from the textbook:
5.12, 5.14, 7.42, 8.2, 8.13, 8.24, 8.25, 8.36, 10.2, 10.3, 10.8.
Also Problem A.
This problem is like some from Written Homework 5, but it is
much more explicit about what should be provided.
Similar problems later and on the final exam will require the
same information, without being as explicit.

Solutions for Written Homework 7:
pdf;
LaTeX.
Not enough proofreading has been done.

Common mistakes in Written Homework 7:
pdf;
LaTeX.
Be sure to read this!
It will be assumed from now on that you know not to make
these mistakes.

Written file
used in class for Lecture 3 (Friday 28 May 2021).

Solutions for Written Homework 8:
pdf;
LaTeX.
Not enough proofreading has been done.

Week 10.

Finals week.

Monday 7 June: Final exam,
10:15 am12:15 pm.
Back to top of page.
Important dates, according to the
Academic
Calendar at the registrar's office
(not guaranteed!)

Su 28 March:
Last day to process a complete drop (100% refund, no W recorded).

Sa 3 April:
Last day to drop this course (100% refund, no W recorded).

Su 4 April:
Last day to drop this course (100% refund, W recorded).

Su 4 April:
Last day to process a complete drop (90% refund, no W recorded).

M 5 April:
Last day to add this course.

Su 11 April:
Last day to drop this course or
process a complete drop (75% refund, W recorded).

Su 18 April:
Last day to drop this course or
process a complete drop (50% refund, W recorded).

Su 25 April:
Last day to drop this course or
process a complete drop (25% refund, W recorded).

Su 16 May:
Last day to withdraw from this course (0% refund, W recorded).

Su 16 May:
Last day to change grading option for this course.
The extended deadline for changing grading options,
which was available in the fall quarter, no longer exists.

Su 16 May:
Last day to process a complete drop (0% refund, W recorded).

M 31 May:
No class (holiday).
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This page maintained by
N. Christopher Phillips,
email.
Please email plain text
(7 bit ASCII)
only
(no web page coded files, Microsoft Word documents, binary
characters, etc.; see above for more).
Last significant change: 27 March 2021.