From okawa.zeng@msa.hinet.net Thu Mar 1 15:01:06 2007 Return-Path: Received: from msr33.hinet.net (msr33.hinet.net [168.95.4.133]) by smtp.XXXXXXX.XXX (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id l21N0sQh014916 for ; Thu, 1 Mar 2007 15:00:55 -0800 Received: from your5e72jvw4yv (125-225-115-17.dynamic.hinet.net [125.225.115.17]) by msr33.hinet.net (8.9.3/8.9.3) with SMTP id XAA26262; Thu, 1 Mar 2007 23:12:22 +0800 (CST) Message-ID: <019e01c75c18$4d4ab2a0$0201a8c0AAXAyour5e72jvw4yv> From: =?UTF-8?B?5pu+5aSn5bed?= To: "schakraborty2AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "F50ALIAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , "santoshsinghAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "tinaAAXAndf.vsnl.net.in" , "amoo23AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , "ashna_sAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "naha_ajayAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , , "xxshadesxxAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "KAMALSHAH34AAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , , "anitashivangAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "koolio7AAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "circlipsAAXAbom3.vsnl.net.in" , "ashu_singhAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "v_binduAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , , "anupam_shriAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "akbarajaAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "larki123AAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "msmehtaAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , "niithspAAXAjla.vsnl.net.in" , "sadhana3AAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , , "mahatabAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "miliAAXApn2.vsnl.net.in" , "d_navaniAAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , , , , , , , , , , , "reroshanAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , "searocksAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "Dance788AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "rahul_singh32AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "scrumpy_19AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "flemingoAAXAad1.vsnl.net.in" , , "msh20AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , "rat80AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "sunil_kuchikooAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "abdulAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , , "shaadAAXAgiasbma.vsnl.net.in" , "BabitaboseAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "aniruddha_rAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "Nazura_kAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , "vibgyorAAXAhd2.vsnl.net.in" , , "deepika8AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , , "ranga_gAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "modi_kunalAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "kedar.gAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "brasil_fanAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "msabiryAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "amal_seth24AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , "sunazAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "talikhan6AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "dr_brahmbhattAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "cprasadAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "wajsipAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "fancies.rubblesAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "rana4kAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , , , "family99AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , "desai96AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , "zainabyasminAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , "kash_420AAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , "vijayg_5AAXAbom4.vsnl.net.in" , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , <177louieAAXAchiron.wits.ac.za>, , , , , , , , , , "shalin143AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "kkundaliaAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "naha_ajayAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "xxshadesxxAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "KAMALSHAH34AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "anitashivangAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "koolio7AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "ashu_singhAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "v_binduAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "anupam_shriAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "akbarajaAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "larki123AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "msmehtaAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "ruchi_jain12AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , , , , , , , , <2sg4fk$bllAAXArodan.UU.NET>, , , , , , , , , "vikash1976AAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "vilomaAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , "teejlabAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , "anjusansiAAXAbom5.vsnl.net.in" , , , , , , , , , , , <12055AAXAvenera.isi.edu>, , , , <2qmiu7$4vnAAXArodan.UU.NET>, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , <2003membersAAXAhtm>, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Subject: Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do not invest any. Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2007 05:42:58 +0800 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Security: MIME headers sanitized on mserv5 See XXXXXXXwww.impsec.org/email-tools/sanitizer-intro.html for details. $Revision: 1.140 $Date: 2004-02-11 20:47:43-08 X-Security: The postmaster has not enabled quarantine of poisoned messages. Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0072_01C75BC4.78017EB0" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 X-Virus-Scanned: ClamAV 0.90/2690/Thu Mar 1 03:11:27 2007 on mserv5 X-Virus-Status: Clean This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0072_01C75BC4.78017EB0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable This is a project of mine to revive the global economy and to fight back = the so-called Economic Neoliberalism along with the Hot Money.=20 As the words in the movie 'Mad Max' starring Mel Gibson, "We don't need = another hero", we don't need the Americano-Imperialism as the hero of = our world any more.=20 After you have read this, you will definitely know that the whole world = got poorer and poorer all because the economic doctrines of the = Neoliberalism. Now the world is getting better, healthier and wealthier, = each day due of the reminding of this letter. Read it with care. It is = good for you.=20 Published on=20 XXXXXXXcity.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=3D1888673&tpno=3D0&no=3D= 3446&cate_no=3D0=20 =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=20 This is to inform those people=20 who do their investment in stock markets or so.=20 If you do not invest any, just ignore it.=20 Mon ami(e),=20 Comment allez-vous aujourdhui?=20 If you do your investment in your domestic stock market,=20 then you must notice the difference between this year and the years = passed by.=20 The stock markets around the world seem to be bizarre=20 according to the technical analysis you used to know, right?=20 It is all because that=20 I have been sending out e-mails to over three million receivers=20 about the new paradigm in investing stock market.=20 Due of the following information I gonna tell you,=20 there are more than 20 CEOs of multinational corporation were fired this = year,=20 including the ones of Morgan Stanley, a US-based financial giant,=20 and the DAX stock market of Germany.=20 Because the public who invest those corporations render those CEOs=20 lost their capabilty to do the right investment=20 taking into acount of the information I sent.=20 So you better get yourself acknowledged about it.=20 I found out a too-simple-to-believe way of evaluation of stocks,=20 that is, the Relative EPS Equation.=20 E'y=3D Ey*(Px/Py)=20 E'y: relative EPS of any stock=20 Ey: real EPS of any stock in 4 consecutive quarters=20 Px: current price of the highest-priced stock=20 Py: current price of any stock=20 Assume that there are 4 different stocks, x, y, z, and w.=20 stock price EPS=20 X 200 11=20 Y 10 0.7=20 Z 20 0.9=20 W 5 -0.2=20 Which one do you prefer to buy?=20 With the same amount of money you invest,=20 you can buy 20 issued stakes of y, 10 of z or 40 of w.=20 That means you would have alternatively=20 y's total EPS, (E'y), as high as $14 [=3D$0.7*(200/10)],=20 z's, (E'z), as much as $9 [=3D$0.9*(200/20)], or=20 w's, (E'w), as bad as $-8 [=3D$-0.2*(200/5)].=20 So it is worthier to invest y than x for E'y > Ex, or 14 > 11.=20 However it is not so wise to buy z for E'z =3D 9 <11.=20 And by the way, the cheaper is not all the good.=20 It is stupid enough to buy w for E'w =3D -8 <<<11!=20 stock price EPS Relative EPS=20 X 200 11 11=20 Y 10 0.7 14 > 11=20 Z 20 0.9 9 < 11=20 W 5 -0.2 -8 << 11=20 This equation can be quoted as a blank-filling in such a = sentence-making:=20 With the same amount of money you invest, you can buy=20 [stock Y] with an EPS earned as much as [...]=20 instead of buying [the highest priced stock [X]=20 which gained nothing more than [...].=20 It will certainly astonish you=20 if you do the calculations of all the stocks in your domestic market.=20 Then you will know the true value of ETFs.=20 Do remember one thing.=20 Add the EPSs of 4 consecutive quarterly reports in total=20 instead of that of an annual report.=20 However, the real dividend matters after all.=20 But you can go through the equation with dividend instead of EPS anyway. = Try to think=20 HOW MUCH CAN YOU GET from the bank(s) or the bond(s)=20 with this same amount of money.=20 Or you may think it this way:=20 How much did your rival(s) get from this message already?=20 Good luck,=20 Senatus Populusque Romanus=20 cathy20048 =C3=A0 Ta=C3=AFwan=20 (My wife applied a web columnist for that name)=20 post scriptum:=20 The publication of the content of this mail is at=20 XXXXXXXcity.udn.com/v1/city/forum/index.jsp?no=3D3446=20 XXXXXXXcity.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=3D1317233&tpno=3D0&no=3D= 3446&cate_no=3D0=20 But since it is in Conventional Mandarin, it might not do you any help.=20 The majority of the web-addresses sent previously are listed at=20 XXXXXXXcity.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=3D1327310&tpno=3D0&raid= =3D1431860&no=3D3446&cate_no=3D0#rep1431860=20 (periodically updated)=20 In case of YOUR BUY-OUT of a corporation in Taiwan, there are some = useful sites for your acknowledgement:=20 (English)=20 XXXXXXXfr.finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=3D^twii=20 XXXXXXXemops.tse.com.tw/emops_all.htm=20 XXXXXXXmis.tse.com.tw/Quotes/MarketChartE=20 XXXXXXXyamstock.megatime.com.tw/yam/xmenulist.asp=20 (Streaming chart et al. in Mandarin)=20 XXXXXXXtw.stock.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=3D2342=20 XXXXXXXyamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stockinfo/ps_tick_java.asp?stockid=3D= 2342=20 XXXXXXXyamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stockinfo/GetReport.asp?select_table=3D= html\bqis\R_&stockid=3D2342&name1=3DD5&index1=3D2=20 XXXXXXXyamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/realquote/quote.asp?menu=3Dusr&market= index=3D2&kindindex=3D0&m=3DJAVA=20 XXXXXXXtw.stock.yahoo.com/d/s/company_2882.html=20 XXXXXXXyamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stockinfo/ps_tick_java.asp?stockid=3D= 2882&style=3Dbest5=20 By the way,=20 the highest-priced stock in Taiwanese markets is the one with a code of = '3452' currently.=20 Pour les gens qui avaient =C3=A9tudi=C3=A9 l'=C3=A9conomique politique,=20 il faut rendre cet article la r=C3=A9volution contre le capitalisme = mon=C3=A9taire monopoliste.=20 =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=20 This following article is on the webpage of=20 XXXXXXXcity.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=3D1331187&tpno=3D0&raid= =3D1612844&no=3D3446&cate_no=3D0#rep161844=20 [=E8=B2=A8=E5=B9=A3=E6=94=BF=E7=AD=96=E7=84=A1=E7=94=A8=E8=AB=96]=E4=B9=8B= =E4=BA=94> Still believe the monetary policy, huh? (in Eng.)=20 Since this lesson is also good for the central banks worldwide, I'd like = to express in English.=20 The news in Mandarin says:=20 =E6=9D=8E=E6=88=90=E5=A4=AA=E5=8D=87=E4=BB=BB=E5=8D=97=E6=9C=9D=E9=AE=AE=E5= =A4=AE=E8=A1=8C=E8=A1=8C=E9=95=B7=20 =E5=B0=8D=E6=8A=97=E9=80=9A=E8=86=A8=E7=9A=84=E9=B7=B9=E6=B4=BE=E8=B2=A8=E5= =B9=A3=E6=94=BF=E7=AD=96=E8=B7=AF=E7=B7=9A=20 Mr. Il, Vice President of South Korean Central bank is to be nominated = to be the President and to fight inflation with spiky attitude.=20 How sorry it is!=20 The economists around the world, especially those in the fields of = micro- and international believe less and less in monetary police which = is emphansized in the field of macro-, denoting the domestic sphere, = since my article "Just ignore this if you and your friends or your = rivals do not invest any." was published here.=20 A latent evidence to this phenomonon is Greenspan's first visit to China = at the end of his 18-year career in FED as a president. That means even = Greenspan does know about the overwhelming power of my article. (I = mailed to the old Guy three times to ensure his receiving.)=20 The new paradigm of my article in INVESTANCE, which I prefer to use this = term to describe the Motion of Capital, is annihilating the effect of = that policy.=20 Let's focus on the mission of the monetary policy firstly, that is, the = domestic inflation. What does it gonna to be if the central bank raise = interest? If the interests are raised, people in the state will lessen = their investment and deposit their money in banks instead of the = potential profit, then the economy cools down, and the prices descend, = as every one knows about it in the previous times. But my disclosure of = the accurate evaluation of stakes will tell people that it is wrong to = put money in the banks for there are targets of investment in- and = outsides of the nation besides the low gaining of bank interests. So the = capital will not return to the domestic banking system and it will go on = investing or fleeing out the nation nevertheless. That means raising = bank interest will NOT hold back the investing capital but slow down the = monetary flow only. Unless the central banks worldwide do the same job, = which is not possible for the economic situations diverse from state to = state. The flow is going on and on till the Utility of international = capital goes to an average range, unless there is a war or a military = threatening.=20 But the mission of central banks does not come to it untill the actual = income is gained in the pocket of the average citizens, then they will = buy the final products and the their prices go up. Before the income got = in the hand of consumers, they will not dare to spend it since the money = is robbed economically by the hungry-like-wolves capitalists during the = passed 3 decades when the doctrine of Neo-economics stands.=20 However the commodity prices will go down before they stand still or go = up due of a competition strategy realized by all of entreprice in all = industrial and commercial sectors. And since the price-cut strategy get = its short-term effect, that is, the sales will go up but the true = earning will be more or less the same among the temporally fixed set of = the consumation amount due of the not-daring-to-spend, the central banks = are forced to cut the bank interests instead of raising it paradoxally.=20 And since people in the developped nations have been robbed = theoretically due of the doctrines of the Chicogo School of economics, = this so-called short-term effect is hopeful in sight of more than one = fisical year. However, the under-developped and developping nations get = their chances to be of proseperity if they do not take the monetary = doctrine so god-damned seriously. As a result of my article = overspreading, we can see the stock markets of UAE, a state in the = middle east, as a matter of example, went up as high as 770% according = to the news. Those Arabians did thanks Chinese for clearing their = knowledge in economics and making their dare to invest domestically, and = the one to be blessed is ME, cathy20048!=20 Back to the mission. There is no need for central banks around the world = to raise or descend the domestic bank interests. The global economy = regain its doctrine of Laissez-faire truely. Any monetary measurement = done is futile according to my fomula of the "Relative EPS". The prices = will not go up thanks to the globalization, that is, the imported goods = will flood out the ascending prices if any. So it is wrong to set = barriers to international trade if any state want their domestic prices = go to ceiling high. But the political considerations such as low = employment are to be noticed. So the settle-down of the fighting between = the ascending domestic prices and the low employment is in the hand of = the governments. However, thanks to the domestic entreprices paying = taxes due to the fomula of the "Relative EPS", governments in the world = are much capable to support all kind of social benefits. But if those = governments trying to cut the taxes will get it, that is, worsening the = national fisical statute leading to serious social conflicts. = Especially, I'd like to warn the United States of such consequences for = Bush Administration is doing so.=20 As a conclusion, the new sweep of South Korean Central Bank is, as we = Chinese say, 'the Ear of a Deaf'. Any monetary interferance only = jeopardizing the economic situation, confusing the markets according to = my article. Any intent to make the domestic interests equal to United = States is breaking the elasticity and durability of your domestic = economy can bear.=20 Hell with the Chicago School!=20 ps 1=20 Let's try it a little bit theoretical.=20 In an AD-AS model, the AD curve shifts to the right due of 'Relative EPS = Equation' of this letter causing the entreprises worldwide buy in = capital goods for production. So the Producers' demand ignites the AD. = As the aggregate production raises, then the prices of goods go down for = the market share. And then price-cut stimulates consumation, the AD in = total.=20 Whenever the FED raises interest rate causing the AS curve shift to the = left. Along the the rightward shift of the AD curve, the point of = equilibrium goes straight up and so does the price equivalently. = However, the Y (GDP) staggers.=20 This means firstly that the mild price raising in the early stage of the = AD's hike is the good motive to the production. And the price will go = back to where it were automatically and rapidly due of the commercial = competition (in a global market, where the price is fixed due of its = attribute of full competition). This is to say, the AD pushes the AS to = the right domestically and globally.=20 Secondly, the aggregate price going up is pushed by the interest-raising = decision made by FED and Central Banks worldwide.=20 ps 2=20 Try to think very serious about those foreign stakes such in the stock = markets of the so-called BRICs states, that are, Brazil, Russia, India = and China. What will those corporations be if they get sufficient = foreign funding?=20 More competitive to the old western giants in the same industrial = sector? I will say you are right. And that will deviate an another = question that it is right for the Giants to merger those companies in = the BRICs states? Perhaps. But those giants still need to be downsized = as well anyway for they are not so efficient in profit-gaining. The = Panel of those multinational corporations might consider much more = seriously about firing those CEOs.=20 ps 3=20 The next day's AP news concerning with this articles is attached down = below.=20 [GM Buyouts Could Result in Weaker Unions] , the micro-view of economics = says it here that the domestic aquisition only weaken the entire = industry. I could not be more agree with it.=20 =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=20 2006.03.24=E3=80=80 =E5=B7=A5=E5=95=86=E6=99=82=E5=A0=B1=20 =E6=9D=8E=E6=88=90=E5=A4=AA=E4=B8=8B=E6=9C=88=E6=8E=A5=E6=8E=8C=E9=9F=93=E5= =9C=8B=E5=A4=AE=E8=A1=8C=20 =E8=95=AD=E9=BA=97=E5=90=9B/=E7=B6=9C=E5=90=88=E5=A4=96=E9=9B=BB=E5=A0=B1= =E5=B0=8E=20 XXXXXXXnews.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,12= 0504+122006032400431,00.html=20 =E4=B8=80=E5=A6=82=E5=A4=96=E7=95=8C=E9=A0=90=E6=9C=9F=EF=BC=8C=E5=8D=97=E9= =9F=93=E7=B8=BD=E7=B5=B1=E7=9B=A7=E6=AD=A6=E9=89=89=E9=80=B1=E5=9B=9B=E6=8F= =90=E5=90=8D=E9=9F=93=E5=9C=8B=E5=A4=AE=E8=A1=8C=E5=89=AF=E7=B8=BD=E8=A3=81= =E6=9D=8E=E6=88=90=E5=A4=AA=EF=BC=8C=E6=8E=A5=E6=9B=BF=E5=B0=87=E5=9C=A8=E6= =9C=AC=E6=9C=88=E5=BA=95=E4=BB=BB=E6=9C=9F=E5=B1=86=E6=BB=BF=E7=9A=84=E6=9C= =B4=E6=98=87=EF=BC=8C=E6=93=94=E4=BB=BB=E5=A4=AE=E8=A1=8C=E7=B8=BD=E8=A3=81= =E4=B8=80=E8=81=B7=E3=80=82=E7=B6=93=E6=BF=9F=E5=AD=B8=E5=AE=B6=E9=A0=90=E6= =9C=9F=EF=BC=8C=E6=9D=8E=E6=88=90=E5=A4=AA=E5=87=BA=E4=BB=BB=E7=B8=BD=E8=A3= =81=E5=BE=8C=EF=BC=8C=E5=9F=BA=E6=9C=AC=E4=B8=8A=E5=B0=87=E8=95=AD=E8=A6=8F= =E6=9B=B9=E9=9A=A8=EF=BC=8C=E5=BB=B6=E7=BA=8C=E6=9C=B4=E6=98=87=E5=B0=8D=E6= =8A=97=E9=80=9A=E8=86=A8=E7=9A=84=E9=B7=B9=E6=B4=BE=E8=B2=A8=E5=B9=A3=E6=94= =BF=E7=AD=96=E8=B7=AF=E7=B7=9A=E3=80=82=20 =E5=9C=A8=E5=8D=97=E9=9F=93=E5=9C=8B=E6=9C=83=E6=9C=AC=E6=9C=88=E7=A8=8D=E5= =BE=8C=E8=A1=A8=E6=B1=BA=E9=80=9A=E9=81=8E=E9=80=99=E9=A0=85=E4=BA=BA=E4=BA= =8B=E4=BB=BB=E5=91=BD=E6=A1=88=E5=BE=8C=EF=BC=8C=E6=9D=8E=E6=88=90=E5=A4=AA= =E5=B0=87=E6=96=BC=E5=9B=9B=E6=9C=88=E4=B8=80=E6=97=A5=E8=B5=B7=EF=BC=8C=E6= =AD=A3=E5=BC=8F=E6=88=90=E7=82=BA=E6=9C=AA=E4=BE=86=E5=9B=9B=E5=B9=B4=E7=9A= =84=E9=9F=93=E5=9C=8B=E5=A4=AE=E8=A1=8C=E7=B8=BD=E8=A3=81=E3=80=82=20 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=B0=87=E5=BE=9E=E7=9B=AE=E5=89=8D=E5=9B=9B=EF=BC=85=E5=8D=87=E8=87=B3=E4=BA= =94%=EF=BC=8C=E4=BB=A5=E5=B0=8D=E9=80=9A=E8=86=A8=E5=A3=93=E5=8A=9B=E5=85= =88=E7=99=BC=E5=88=B6=E4=BA=BA=EF=BC=8C=E4=B8=A6=E8=88=87=E5=85=A8=E7=90=83= =E5=88=A9=E7=8E=87=E8=B5=B0=E5=8D=87=E7=9A=84=E5=9F=BA=E8=AA=BF=E4=B8=80=E8= =87=B4=E3=80=82=20 =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=20 On the webpage of=20 XXXXXXXbiz.yahoo.com/ap/060324/gm_industry.html?.v=3D2=20 AP=20 GM Buyouts Could Result in Weaker Unions=20 Friday March 24, 4:42 pm ET=20 By Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writer=20 GM Offer to Buy Out Workers May Lead to Weaker Unions, Higher Sticker = Prices on Vehicles=20 DETROIT (AP) -- For a U.S. auto industry already undergoing a sea = change, General Motors Corp.'s offer to buy out more than 100,000 = autoworkers will only bring more upheaval that could result in weaker = unions, thousands of jobless Baby Boomers and higher sticker prices on = vehicles, eventually.=20 ADVERTISEMENT=20 "We're going to see major, major changes in the way vehicles are = manufactured and who's going to be doing the manufacturing," said James = McTevia, a Detroit-area restructuring consultant. "We haven't seen the = last of it yet."=20 Under GM's plan -- one of the largest corporate buyouts in history -- GM = is offering between $35,000 and $140,000 to 113,000 U.S. hourly workers = as part of its goal of cutting 30,000 jobs by 2008. GM also will = bankroll early-retirement buyouts at Delphi Corp., its former parts = division and major supplier. Up to 17,000 hourly workers at Delphi could = be eligible for a $35,000 payment to retire.=20 GM and Delphi haven't said how many workers are expected to take the = deal, but JPMorgan auto analyst Himanshu Patel predicts as many as = 39,000 GM workers could leave the company. McTevia said that will mean = many autoworkers in their late 40s and early 50s will be retiring even = though they have many productive years left.=20 While those workers will get pensions and health care benefits from GM, = their benefits may not be as rich as they once were. GM is currently = seeking federal court approval for a plan to make retirees pay more for = their health care, and could continue to whittle away at those benefits = in the future.=20 "What are these people going to do in an economy that's changing when = their experience is automotive-driven?" McTevia said. "How are they = going to fit into our society?"=20 The number of automotive retirees likely will grow. Many analysts = predict similar buyouts at Ford Motor Co. and at auto suppliers who are = struggling with the same high costs, fierce competition and overcapacity = that plagues GM. GM lost $10.6 billion in 2005. Ford earned $2 billion, = but lost $1.6 billion in its North American operations.=20 "I think it's a matter of time before Ford says, `Me too,'" said Erich = Merkle, director of automotive forecasting for the consulting firm IRN = Inc.=20 Already this year, Ford has offered buyouts to some 15,400 workers, = including 11,900 who work at former Visteon Corp. plants now under the = control of Automotive Components Holdings LLC, a Ford-managed company. = At a plant Ford is closing in Edison, N.J., 33 percent of the 200 = workers offered buyouts this year have taken them, Ford spokeswoman = Marcey Evans said.=20 The exodus weakens the United Auto Workers, which has been watching a = steady erosion of its membership for the last few decades. There were = 622,000 UAW members in 2004, down from 1.6 million active members at the = UAW's peak in 1970.=20 "They are going to have fewer people to represent in their collective = bargaining, and that's going to have some effect on their negotiating = ability," McTevia said.=20 At the same time, the ranks of nonunion autoworkers are growing, as = companies like Toyota Motor Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. expand their = presence in the United States. While GM's hourly U.S. workforce shrank = by more than half -- or 114,800 workers -- between 1994 and 2004, = Toyota's total U.S. manufacturing workforce, which includes salaried = plant employees, rose 90 percent, from 11,182 to 21,225.=20 Sean McAlinden, chief economist with the Center for Automotive Research = in Ann Arbor, said 35 percent of workers at auto companies and suppliers = are unionized, down from nearly 65 percent in the mid-1970s.=20 Still, most analysts are quick to say GM's buyouts will be good for the = overall industry. GM has far too much plant capacity for its shrinking = market share, which has dropped from 44 percent of the U.S. market in = 1980 to 26 percent last year. GM's North American plants were running at = 87 percent of their total capacity last year, according to Harbour = Consulting. By comparison, Toyota's plants were running at full = capacity.=20 McAlinden said every active worker costs GM around $130,000 a year, = compared to just $15,000 a year for retired workers, so the buyouts make = a lot of financial sense. If GM lowers its capacity, he added, it will = no longer have a glut of cars that need big discounts to sell. That will = allow GM to charge slightly higher prices and lessen the pressure on = other automakers to offer costly incentives, he said. Right now, = incentives per vehicle can approach $4,000 or more.=20 Merkle added that GM had to take aggressive action because it can't = sustain the kind of losses it saw last year, and that action will = benefit the entire industry.=20 "It's a matter of time before GM files for bankruptcy if these issues = aren't addressed," Merkle said.=20 You might not have read the rest 14 letters if you receive this letter = from one of your dear friends. So, check out the following web page = where the other letters are published. =20 Cf. 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= gtvnewsAAXAexch.gtv.com.tw ; cctv-4-mail1AAXAcctv-4.com ; = xhsjbxxAAXAxinhuanet.com ; publicAAXAmail.oop.gov.tw ; abainAAXAmail.oop.gov.tw ; = vpAAXAmail.oop.gov.tw ; eyemailAAXAeyemail.gio.gov.tw ; tahrAAXAseed.net.tw ; = childrenAAXAcwlf.org.tw ; chairmanAAXAkmt.org.tw ; webserviceAAXApfp.org.tw ; = serviceAAXAtsu.org.tw ; myn2004127AAXAsina.com ; presidenteAAXAvenezuela.gob.ve=20 Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2007 10:52 PM Subject: Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do = not invest any.=20 ------=_NextPart_000_0072_01C75BC4.78017EB0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable =EF=BB=BF

 
 
 

 












This is a = project of mine to=20 revive the global economy and to fight back the so-called Economic = Neoliberalism=20 along with the Hot Money.

As the words in = the movie 'Mad=20 Max' starring Mel Gibson, "We don't need another hero", we don't need = the=20 Americano-Imperialism as the hero of our world any more.

After = you have=20 read this, you will definitely know that the whole world got poorer and = poorer=20 all because the economic doctrines of the Neoliberalism. Now the world = is=20 getting better, healthier and wealthier, each day due of the reminding = of this=20 letter. Read it with care. It is good for you.


Published = on=20
XXXXXXXcity.udn.com/v1/city/forum/= article.jsp?aid=3D1888673&tpno=3D0&no=3D3446&cate_no=3D0 =

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

This is to inform those people
who do their investment in = stock=20 markets or so.
If you do not invest any, just ignore it.
=20





Mon ami(e),

Comment = allez-vous=20 aujourdhui?

If you do your investment in your domestic stock = market,=20
then you must notice the difference between this year and the years = passed=20 by.
The stock markets around the world seem to be bizarre =
according to=20 the technical analysis you used to know, right?
It is all because = that
I=20 have been sending out e-mails to over three million receivers
about = the new=20 paradigm in investing stock market.
Due of the following information = I gonna=20 tell you,
there are more than 20 CEOs of multinational corporation = were=20 fired this year,
including the ones of Morgan Stanley, a US-based = financial=20 giant,
and the DAX stock market of Germany.
Because the public = who=20 invest those corporations render those CEOs
lost their capabilty to = do the=20 right investment
taking into acount of the information I sent. =
So you=20 better get yourself acknowledged about it.

I found out a=20 too-simple-to-believe way of evaluation of stocks,
that is, the = Relative EPS=20 Equation.

E'y=3D Ey*(Px/Py)

E'y: relative EPS of any = stock
Ey:=20 real EPS of any stock in 4 consecutive quarters
Px: current price of = the=20 highest-priced stock
Py: current price of any stock

Assume = that=20 there are 4 different stocks, x, y, z, and w.

stock=20 price    EPS =
X       =20 200    11
Y         =20 10      0.7

Z         &n= bsp;=20 20      0.9

W         &n= bsp; =20 5     -0.2


Which one do you prefer to = buy?=20


With the same amount of money you invest,
you can buy = 20 issued stakes of y
, 10 = of z=20 or 40 of w.
That means you would have=20 alternatively
y's total = EPS, (E'y),=20 as high as $14 [=3D$0.7*(200/10)],
z's, (E'z), as much as $9=20 [=3D$0.9*(200/20)],
or
w's, (E'w), as = bad as $-8=20 [=3D$-0.2*(200/5)].

So it is worthier to invest y than x = for E'y
> Ex, or 14 = > 11.=20
However it is not so wise to buy z for E'z =3D = 9=20 <11.
And by the way, the cheaper is not all the good.
It is = stupid=20 enough to buy w for E'w =3D -8 = <<<11!=20

stock price  EPS Relative EPS=20
X       =20 200   11        &n= bsp;      =20 11
Y         =20 10    =20 0.7           &nbs= p;=20 14
>  11
Z         &n= bsp;=20 20    =20 0.9           &nbs= p; =20 9 <  11
W         &n= bsp; =20 5   -0.2        &n= bsp;   =20 -8 << 11

This equation can be quoted as a = blank-filling in=20 such a sentence-making:
With the same amount = of money=20 you invest, you can buy
[stock Y] with = an EPS=20 earned as much as [...]
instead of buying [the highest priced stock = [X]=20
which gained nothing more than [...].


It will = certainly=20 astonish you
if you do the calculations of all the stocks in your = domestic=20 market.
Then you will know the true value of ETFs.

Do = remember one=20 thing.
Add the EPSs of 4 consecutive quarterly = reports=20 in total
instead of that of an annual report.
=

However, the real dividend matters after all.
But you = can go=20 through the equation with dividend instead of EPS anyway.
Try to = think=20
HOW MUCH CAN YOU GET from the bank(s) or the = bond(s)=20
with this same amount of money.

Or you may think it this = way:=20
How much did your rival(s) get from this = message=20 already?



Good luck,
Senatus Populusque Romanus



cathy20048 = =C3=A0 Ta=C3=AFwan=20
(My wife applied a web columnist for that name) =




post=20 scriptum:

The publication of the content of this mail is at =
XXXXXXXcit= y.udn.com/v1/city/forum/index.jsp?no=3D3446=20
XXXXXXXcity.udn.com/v1/city/forum/= article.jsp?aid=3D1317233&tpno=3D0&no=3D3446&cate_no=3D0 =

But since it is in Conventional Mandarin, it might not do you = any help.=20

The majority of the web-addresses sent previously are listed at =
http= ://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=3D1327310&tpno=3D0&= raid=3D1431860&no=3D3446&cate_no=3D0#rep1431860=20
(periodically updated)

In case of YOUR BUY-OUT of a = corporation in=20 Taiwan, there are some useful sites for your acknowledgement: =
(English)=20
XXXXXXXfr.finance.yah= oo.com/q/cp?s=3D^twii=20
XXXXXXXemops.tse.com.tw/em= ops_all.htm=20
XXXXXXXmis.tse.com.tw/= Quotes/MarketChartE=20
XXXXXXXyamstoc= k.megatime.com.tw/yam/xmenulist.asp=20

(Streaming chart et al. in Mandarin)
XXXXXXXtw.stock.yahoo.co= m/q/bc?s=3D2342=20
XXXXXXXyamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stockinfo/ps_tick_java.= asp?stockid=3D2342=20
= XXXXXXXyamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stockinfo/GetReport.asp?select_table=3D= html\bqis\R_&stockid=3D2342&name1=3DD5&index1=3D2=20
XXXXXXXyamstock.meg= atime.com.tw/asp/realquote/quote.asp?menu=3Dusr&marketindex=3D2&k= indindex=3D0&m=3DJAVA=20
XXXXXXXtw.stock.= yahoo.com/d/s/company_2882.html=20
XXXXXXXyamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stock= info/ps_tick_java.asp?stockid=3D2882&style=3Dbest5=20


By the way,
the highest-priced stock in Taiwanese = markets is the=20 one with a code of '3452' = currently.=20


Pour les gens qui avaient =C3=A9tudi=C3=A9 l'=C3=A9conomique = politique,
il faut=20 rendre cet article la r=C3=A9volution contre le capitalisme = mon=C3=A9taire monopoliste.=20



=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
This=20 following article is on the webpage of
http:= //city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=3D1331187&tpno=3D0&r= aid=3D1612844&no=3D3446&cate_no=3D0#rep161844=20



[=E8=B2=A8=E5=B9=A3=E6=94=BF=E7=AD=96=E7=84=A1=E7=94=A8=E8=AB=96= ]=E4=B9=8B=E4=BA=94> Still believe the=20 monetary policy, huh? (in Eng.) =

Since this lesson is also good for the central banks worldwide, = I'd=20 like to express in English.

The news in Mandarin says:=20

=E6=9D=8E=E6=88=90=E5=A4=AA=E5=8D=87=E4=BB=BB=E5=8D=97=E6=9C=9D=E9= =AE=AE=E5=A4=AE=E8=A1=8C=E8=A1=8C=E9=95=B7 =
=E5=B0=8D=E6=8A=97=E9=80=9A=E8=86=A8=E7=9A=84=E9=B7=B9=E6=B4=BE=E8=B2= =A8=E5=B9=A3=E6=94=BF=E7=AD=96=E8=B7=AF=E7=B7=9A
Mr. Il, Vice = President of South=20 Korean Central bank is to be nominated to be the President and to fight=20 inflation with spiky attitude.

How sorry it is!
The = economists=20 around the world, especially those in the fields of micro- and = international=20 believe less and less in monetary police which is emphansized in the = field of=20 macro-, denoting the domestic sphere, since my article "Just ignore this = if you=20 and your friends or your rivals do not invest any." was published here.=20

A latent evidence to this phenomonon is Greenspan's first visit = to China=20 at the end of his 18-year career in FED as a president. That means even=20 Greenspan does know about the overwhelming power of my article. (I = mailed to the=20 old Guy three times to ensure his receiving.)

The new paradigm = of my=20 article in INVESTANCE, which I prefer to use this term to describe the = Motion of=20 Capital, is annihilating the effect of that policy.

Let's focus = on the=20 mission of the monetary policy firstly, that is, the domestic inflation. = What=20 does it gonna to be if the central bank raise interest? If the interests = are=20 raised, people in the state will lessen their investment and deposit = their money=20 in banks instead of the potential profit, then the economy cools down, = and the=20 prices descend, as every one knows about it in the previous times. But = my=20 disclosure of the accurate evaluation of stakes will tell people that it = is=20 wrong to put money in the banks for there are targets of investment in- = and=20 outsides of the nation besides the low gaining of bank interests. So the = capital=20 will not return to the domestic banking system and it will go on = investing or=20 fleeing out the nation nevertheless. That means raising bank interest = will NOT=20 hold back the investing capital but slow down the monetary flow only. = Unless the=20 central banks worldwide do the same job, which is not possible for the = economic=20 situations diverse from state to state. The flow is going on and on till = the=20 Utility of international capital goes to an average range, unless there = is a war=20 or a military threatening.

But the mission of central banks does = not=20 come to it untill the actual income is gained in the pocket of the = average=20 citizens, then they will buy the final products and the their prices go = up.=20 Before the income got in the hand of consumers, they will not dare to = spend it=20 since the money is robbed economically by the hungry-like-wolves = capitalists=20 during the passed 3 decades when the doctrine of Neo-economics stands.=20

However the commodity prices will go down before they stand = still or go=20 up due of a competition strategy realized by all of entreprice in all = industrial=20 and commercial sectors. And since the price-cut strategy get its = short-term=20 effect, that is, the sales will go up but the true earning will be more = or less=20 the same among the temporally fixed set of the consumation amount due of = the=20 not-daring-to-spend, the central banks are forced to cut the bank = interests=20 instead of raising it paradoxally.

And since people in the = developped=20 nations have been robbed theoretically due of the doctrines of the = Chicogo=20 School of economics, this so-called short-term effect is hopeful in = sight of=20 more than one fisical year. However, the under-developped and = developping=20 nations get their chances to be of proseperity if they do not take the = monetary=20 doctrine so god-damned seriously. As a result of my article = overspreading, we=20 can see the stock markets of UAE, a state in the middle east, as a = matter of=20 example, went up as high as 770% according to the news. Those Arabians = did=20 thanks Chinese for clearing their knowledge in economics and making = their dare=20 to invest domestically, and the one to be blessed is ME, cathy20048!=20

Back to the mission. There is no need for central banks around = the world=20 to raise or descend the domestic bank interests. The global economy = regain its=20 doctrine of Laissez-faire truely. Any monetary measurement done is = futile=20 according to my fomula of the "Relative EPS". The prices will not go up = thanks=20 to the globalization, that is, the imported goods will flood out the = ascending=20 prices if any. So it is wrong to set barriers to international trade if = any=20 state want their domestic prices go to ceiling high. But the political=20 considerations such as low employment are to be noticed. So the = settle-down of=20 the fighting between the ascending domestic prices and the low = employment is in=20 the hand of the governments. However, thanks to the domestic entreprices = paying=20 taxes due to the fomula of the "Relative EPS", governments in the = world are=20 much capable to support all kind of social benefits. But if those = governments=20 trying to cut the taxes will get it, that is, worsening the national = fisical=20 statute leading to serious social conflicts. Especially, I'd like to = warn the=20 United States of such consequences for Bush Administration is doing so.=20

As a conclusion, the new sweep of South Korean Central Bank is, = as we=20 Chinese say, 'the Ear of a Deaf'. Any monetary interferance only = jeopardizing=20 the economic situation, confusing the markets according to my article. = Any=20 intent to make the domestic interests equal to United States is breaking = the=20 elasticity and durability of your domestic economy can bear.=20



Hell with the Chicago School! =






ps 1
Let's try it a little bit theoretical.
In = an AD-AS=20 model, the AD curve shifts to the right due of 'Relative EPS Equation' = of this=20 letter causing the entreprises worldwide buy in capital goods for = production. So=20 the Producers' demand ignites the AD. As the aggregate production = raises, then=20 the prices of goods go down for the market share. And then price-cut = stimulates=20 consumation, the AD in total.
Whenever the FED raises interest rate = causing=20 the AS curve shift to the left. Along the the rightward shift of the AD = curve,=20 the point of equilibrium goes straight up and so does the price = equivalently.=20 However, the Y (GDP) staggers.

This means firstly that the mild = price=20 raising in the early stage of the AD's hike is the good motive to the=20 production. And the price will go back to where it were automatically = and=20 rapidly due of the commercial competition (in a global market, where the = price=20 is fixed due of its attribute of full competition). This is to say, the = AD=20 pushes the AS to the right domestically and globally.
Secondly, the=20 aggregate price going up is pushed by the interest-raising decision made = by FED=20 and Central Banks worldwide.


ps 2
Try to think very = serious=20 about those foreign stakes such in the stock markets of the so-called = BRICs=20 states, that are, Brazil, Russia, India and China. What will those = corporations=20 be if they get sufficient foreign funding?
More competitive to the = old=20 western giants in the same industrial sector? I will say you are right. = And that=20 will deviate an another question that it is right for the Giants to = merger those=20 companies in the BRICs states? Perhaps. But those giants still need to = be=20 downsized as well anyway for they are not so efficient in = profit-gaining. The=20 Panel of those multinational corporations might consider much more = seriously=20 about firing those CEOs.

ps 3
The next day's AP news = concerning with=20 this articles is attached down below.
[GM Buyouts Could Result in = Weaker=20 Unions] , the micro-view of economics says it here that the domestic = aquisition=20 only weaken the entire industry. I could not be more agree with it.=20



=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=20

2006.03.24=E3=80=80 =E5=B7=A5=E5=95=86=E6=99=82=E5=A0=B1 =
=E6=9D=8E=E6=88=90=E5=A4=AA=E4=B8=8B=E6=9C=88=E6=8E=A5=E6=8E=8C=E9=9F= =93=E5=9C=8B=E5=A4=AE=E8=A1=8C =
=E8=95=AD=E9=BA=97=E5=90=9B/=E7=B6=9C=E5=90=88=E5=A4=96=E9=9B=BB=E5=A0= =B1=E5=B0=8E
XXXXXXXnews.chinatimes.com/Chinatim= es/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,120504+122006032400431,00.html=20

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=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D =
On the webpage of=20
XXXXXXXbi= z.yahoo.com/ap/060324/gm_industry.html?.v=3D2=20

AP
GM Buyouts Could Result in Weaker Unions
Friday March = 24,=20 4:42 pm ET
By Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writer
GM Offer to Buy Out = Workers=20 May Lead to Weaker Unions, Higher Sticker Prices on Vehicles =

DETROIT=20 (AP) -- For a U.S. auto industry already undergoing a sea change, = General Motors=20 Corp.'s offer to buy out more than 100,000 autoworkers will only bring = more=20 upheaval that could result in weaker unions, thousands of jobless Baby = Boomers=20 and higher sticker prices on vehicles, eventually.

ADVERTISEMENT =
"We're going to see major, major changes in the way vehicles are=20 manufactured and who's going to be doing the manufacturing," said James = McTevia,=20 a Detroit-area restructuring consultant. "We haven't seen the last of it = yet."=20

Under GM's plan -- one of the largest corporate buyouts in = history -- GM=20 is offering between $35,000 and $140,000 to 113,000 U.S. hourly workers = as part=20 of its goal of cutting 30,000 jobs by 2008. GM also will bankroll=20 early-retirement buyouts at Delphi Corp., its former parts division and = major=20 supplier. Up to 17,000 hourly workers at Delphi could be eligible for a = $35,000=20 payment to retire.

GM and Delphi haven't said how many workers = are=20 expected to take the deal, but JPMorgan auto analyst Himanshu Patel = predicts as=20 many as 39,000 GM workers could leave the company. McTevia said that = will mean=20 many autoworkers in their late 40s and early 50s will be retiring even = though=20 they have many productive years left.

While those workers will = get=20 pensions and health care benefits from GM, their benefits may not be as = rich as=20 they once were. GM is currently seeking federal court approval for a = plan to=20 make retirees pay more for their health care, and could continue to = whittle away=20 at those benefits in the future.

"What are these people going to = do in=20 an economy that's changing when their experience is automotive-driven?" = McTevia=20 said. "How are they going to fit into our society?"

The number = of=20 automotive retirees likely will grow. Many analysts predict similar = buyouts at=20 Ford Motor Co. and at auto suppliers who are struggling with the same = high=20 costs, fierce competition and overcapacity that plagues GM. GM lost = $10.6=20 billion in 2005. Ford earned $2 billion, but lost $1.6 billion in its = North=20 American operations.

"I think it's a matter of time before Ford = says,=20 `Me too,'" said Erich Merkle, director of automotive forecasting for the = consulting firm IRN Inc.

Already this year, Ford has offered = buyouts to=20 some 15,400 workers, including 11,900 who work at former Visteon Corp. = plants=20 now under the control of Automotive Components Holdings LLC, a = Ford-managed=20 company. At a plant Ford is closing in Edison, N.J., 33 percent of the = 200=20 workers offered buyouts this year have taken them, Ford spokeswoman = Marcey Evans=20 said.

The exodus weakens the United Auto Workers, which has been = watching a steady erosion of its membership for the last few decades. = There were=20 622,000 UAW members in 2004, down from 1.6 million active members at the = UAW's=20 peak in 1970.

"They are going to have fewer people to represent = in their=20 collective bargaining, and that's going to have some effect on their = negotiating=20 ability," McTevia said.

At the same time, the ranks of nonunion=20 autoworkers are growing, as companies like Toyota Motor Corp. and = Hyundai Motor=20 Co. expand their presence in the United States. While GM's hourly U.S. = workforce=20 shrank by more than half -- or 114,800 workers -- between 1994 and 2004, = Toyota's total U.S. manufacturing workforce, which includes salaried = plant=20 employees, rose 90 percent, from 11,182 to 21,225.

Sean = McAlinden, chief=20 economist with the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, said 35 = percent=20 of workers at auto companies and suppliers are unionized, down from = nearly 65=20 percent in the mid-1970s.

Still, most analysts are quick to say = GM's=20 buyouts will be good for the overall industry. GM has far too much plant = capacity for its shrinking market share, which has dropped from 44 = percent of=20 the U.S. market in 1980 to 26 percent last year. GM's North American = plants were=20 running at 87 percent of their total capacity last year, according to = Harbour=20 Consulting. By comparison, Toyota's plants were running at full = capacity.=20

McAlinden said every active worker costs GM around $130,000 a = year,=20 compared to just $15,000 a year for retired workers, so the buyouts make = a lot=20 of financial sense. If GM lowers its capacity, he added, it will no = longer have=20 a glut of cars that need big discounts to sell. That will allow GM to = charge=20 slightly higher prices and lessen the pressure on other automakers to = offer=20 costly incentives, he said. Right now, incentives per vehicle can = approach=20 $4,000 or more.

Merkle added that GM had to take aggressive = action=20 because it can't sustain the kind of losses it saw last year, and that = action=20 will benefit the entire industry.

"It's a matter of time before = GM files=20 for bankruptcy if these issues aren't addressed," Merkle said.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
You might = not have read=20 the rest 14 letters if you receive this letter from one of your dear=20 friends.  So, check out the following web page where the other = letters are=20 published. 
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= infoAAXAclark.net =
Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2007 10:30 PM
Subject: Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or = your rivals=20 do not invest any.

 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: =E6=9B=BE=E5=A4=A7=E5=B7=9D =
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Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2007 10:52 PM
Subject: Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or = your rivals=20 do not invest any.

 
 
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