Oil Industry: 1,020 Billions of barrels (Gbo) of Oil left.
Production Rate: 23.6 Gbo/Year
Enough for 43 Years.
Assumes No Growth!!
When reserves get low, Oil cannot be mined as fast. Cost is more.
Decline of the availability of Oil will probably begin in 2010.
Note 800 Gbo (Billion Barrels) have been mined up to 1997. By Exponential Growth Example, 5% Growth, we would need 800 Gbo for the next 14 years.
Usage rate may be higher than 5% due to the increase of use by developing nations. May be lower due to conservation efforts.
Digging For True Numbers.
Exaggerations by governments and oil companies make the reserve numbers unreliable.
For example, in the late 1980s, OPEC increased estimates by 287Gbo, more than the total oil produced by the U.S. plus 40%!
Confidence levels of the amount of reserves can be rated.
P50 value is the number of barrel that is likely to come out as may not come out. Many wells will produce above the P50 level. However, many wells will fall below the P50 level. Therefore P50 estimates have a tendency to cancel each other out.
P50 estimates of reserves: 850Gbo of oil is available
Observations:
Global Rate Estimate, 2%: doubling Time = 35 years. Remember that with exponential growth, you use in one doubling time all the stuff you used previously. That means 800Gbo by 2033. We will probably Freak Out around 2010.