We develop and test an empirical model of individuals’ intertemporal demands for programs to mitigate health risks over the remaining years of their lives. We estimate this model using data from an innovative national survey of demand for preventative health care. We find qualified support for the Erhlich (2000) life-cycle model, which predicts that individuals expect to derive increasing marginal utility from reducing health risks that come to bear later in their lives. However, we also find that as individuals age, there appears to be a systematic downward shift in their anticipated schedule of marginal utility for risk reduction at future ages. Our model improves upon earlier work by differentiating between the respondent’s current age and the future ages at which they would experience adverse health states. Using estimated demand schedules specific to an individual’s current age, we demonstrate the calculation of values for risk mitigation programs that reduce the probabilities of specified time profiles of adverse future health states involving various latency periods.
Supplementary materials: Appendix