Background

An integral part of any site analysis is developing a land inventory and estimating development capacity under existing zoning. This assignment builds from our discussion of forecasting and land supply monitoring. It requires you to use County Assessment data, aerial photos, and field verification to develop a land use inventory for your study area and to estimate development capacity.

Your analysis should be presented in the form of a memorandum to the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) and should include appropriate analysis, narrative, and tables. The TAC expects you to submit your analysis in class on Monday, November 3. 

The Assignment

Part I: Forecasting

This assignment is designed to allow you to apply your projection, forecasting, and data interpretation skills. You will gather data for Lane County and Eugene-Springfield and evaluate the forecasts prepared by the state Office of Economic Analysis and the Lane Council of Governments.

Start by downloading the long-term population and economic forecasts by county from the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA):

http://www.oea.das.state.or.us/population.htm

The OEA forecasts extend until 2040 and are the official county-level control totals. In other words, if you were to develop a set of sub-county forecasts for Lane County, they would need to sum to within ±5% of the county control total.

Specifically, you should:

1.         Using the OEA data, complete the table below showing population, annual percent change, and average annual growth rate (AAGR) using historical County and state data for the period between 1980 and 1990 and the period between 1990 and 2000.

 What conclusions can be made from the results? What factors may have affected the population trends?

2.         Using the LCOG data posted on the Web Site (click here), create a table showing the ratio of population for Lane County and Eugene-Springfield to Lane County for each 5-year period shown in the MetroPopForecast sheet. Discuss the implications of the data.

3.         Project population for Lane County and Eugene Springfield using the straight-line method and the compound method. Use the years 1990 and 2000 to derive the growth rates. Present the results in 10-year increments out to 2040.

4.         List the assumptions implicit in the projections.  Indicate your level of confidence in the accuracy of your projections.

5.         Compare the results of your projections for Lane County with the OEA long-term forecast. What differences do you observe? What factors may have contributed to those differences?

Part II: Land Capacity Analysis

The assignment is to complete the land use inventory and land capacity analysis. Specifically, your analysis should include:

• A table summarizing lands by classification (e.g., developed, vacant, or redevelopable);

• A table summarizing vacant lands by plan designation; a table summarizing vacant lands by zoning;

• An estimate of the capacity of vacant land on your site based on assumptions about housing and/or employment density by plan designation;

• A discussion of what data would make your analysis more accurate.

Data Available/Assumptions

As you initiate work on this project, you’ll find inconsistencies in the data: tax lot boundaries may not follow the study area boundaries; zoning may not be correct or may be split on a parcel. Unfortunately, you don’t have time to address all of these inconsistencies. You have a number of options available: make assumptions; adjust your data, etc. Do what you feel is reasonable given the data and available time.

GIS files of your study area are available here in zip format:

• Railroad

• Library

• River Road

You’ll need the Assessment data to complete the assignment. I’ve made that data available in Excel format for download here.

You can find the metadata for the GIS files at: http://www.rlid.org/cfdocs/rlid/reg_Metadata/MetaCategories.cfm

Density Assumptions

Use the following assumptions about density:

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October 21, 2003