WEAI/AERE 2012 - Individual Paper Abstract
Title: Agricultural Shock and Family Planning
Author(s): Shamma ALAM, Department of Economics, University of Washington, Savery Hall, Box 353300, Seattle, WA 98195, USA, 206-327-5465, salam at uw dot edu; Claus Portner, Seattle University [Photo credit: based on Wikimedia Commons, Ngorongoro Crater.jpg]
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and fertility decisions. Using panel data from Tanzania we estimate the impact of agricultural shocks on contraception use, pregnancy, and the likelihood of childbirth. To account for potential endogeneity in fertility decisions and shocks, and unobservable household characteristics we use an individual fixed effects model. Households significantly increase their contraception use in response to income shocks from crop loss. Most of this increase comes from an increased use of traditional contraceptive methods (such as abstinence and rhythm method) rather than modern contraceptives (such as condom, diaphragm, pill, IUD, injection, female and male sterilization). Despite most of the increase in contraceptive use coming from traditional methods, pregnancies and childbirth are significantly delayed for households experiencing a crop shock. On average, crops lost over the last 12-14 months have an impact on current contraception use, whereas crop lost 6-12 months ago leads to a reduced likelihood of pregnancy. Finally, we find that the likelihood of childbirth significantly decreases for households following the income shock. For contraceptive use, pregnancies, and childbirths the impact of shocks is significantly larger the poorer the household.