WEAI/AERE 2012 - Individual Paper Abstract


Title: Within our Means: Growth and Development under Water Scarcity

Author(s): Jason HANSEN, Naval Postgraduate School, DRMI Code 64 Monterey, CA 93943, USA, 831-656-2447, 831-656-2139, jkhansen at nps dot edu; Janie Chermak, University of New Mexico

Abstract:

In many regions of the United States, economic growth objectives are considered independently of resource availability. Nowhere is this more evident than in communities in the arid southwest where the emphasis is on job growth and business development. For example, at the Albuquerque, NM Economic Development website, the mission is given as "...create, diversify and enhance job growth and...promote business development stability. EDD support business and the development of community within city government and between city agencies." At the same time, city utilities warn of water scarcity and emphasize cutting back on water usage by promoting conservation through rebate plans or through fine mechanisms. The difficulty with these approaches is that they are mutually exclusive. Economic development often assumes growth is always desirable and open-ended. Conservation programs often assume that conservation and reduced water use is always the desired outcome. These divergent policy approaches create a conundrum since in actuality water, land, and labor are necessary inputs into economic output. This means that well-considered economic growth objectives reflect resource availability.

In this research, we develop a dynamic theoretical model with changing technology at the city level that considers labor and water as inputs into production. This allows us to consider trade-offs between an increase in economic activity, the labor force and population with decreased water availability, and changes in input productivity over time. We add salience to the problem, with a series of dynamic simulations that we operationalize for Albuquerque, New Mexico, to consider not only the trade-offs between economic growth and resource scarcity, but also to find what optimal economic growth and targeted development might look like under increasing resource scarcity. Preliminary results suggest that in many cases of scarcity economic expansion is neither desirable nor sustainable. To ensure a sustainable city, targeted growth that considers all aspects of the problem, including water scarcity, may be necessary.